They still can't send him to jail as long as he has secret service, no matter what he does. So what can they do without the Disgrace Act? And you know damn well if it's probation, they'll probably do something unconstitutional like further limit his free speech. It'll be a shit show in every direction. Imagine a sitting President on probation....
No, no one is going to change their vote from Trump from the conviction, but if people on X are being genuine, he's getting new voters who were undecided before simply due to the corruption of the justice system. but I suspect many of them were already voting for Trump and just looking for views.