The Back Alley Archives

Article published online Dec 31 2007:

Robert Shiller, Professor of Economics at Yale University, predicted that there was a very real possibility that the US would be plunged into a Japan-style slump, with house prices declining for years.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3111659.ece

Find a thousand people that knew they were all going to happen and I will criticize Obama for not knowing.

i'm not asking you to criticize the PE...i'm asking you to understand that you can't make promises that you can't keep...unfortunately, and i'm not lumping YOU with THEM, but there are a lot of uneducated and unfamiliar americans voting on emotion over common sense. i don't blame anyone for being trust worthy mind you...i blame the tactic of exploiting the publics emotional grief.

Then why do you say Obama should have known and bang on him for it but openly endorse the guy that a month before the collapse said the market was in great shape?

Forgive me Rad, I don't remember you posting a year and a half ago that Lehman Bros, Goldman Sachs, Mongan Stanley, AIG were all going to collapse. Did I forget any? Please feel free since Wall Street predicts EVERYTHING to go find your posts about that coming.

Recession was being seriously considered in 2005/2006 as a possibility for the U.S. economy....everyone knows you aren't going to be able to raise taxes during a recession.

Here's an article from Nouriel Roubini in December 07...he does a good job of pulling all the indicators together (includes labor, housing, corporate earnings, etc): http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/234306

I can understand your line of thinking...no, nobody could have predicted exactly how bad it would get or exactly how all the parts would be affected....but plenty of folks saw a HARD landing for the US economy. Our leaders, however, choose terrible advisers, particularly when it comes to economics. Ron Paul has been preaching this stuff for years now...but then again, being a student of Austrian economics, he has a clearer understanding of it than 99% of our leaders.

Article published online Dec 31 2007:

Robert Shiller, Professor of Economics at Yale University, predicted that there was a very real possibility that the US would be plunged into a Japan-style slump, with house prices declining for years.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3111659.ece

Find a thousand people that knew they were all going to happen and I will criticize Obama for not knowing.

i'm not asking you to criticize the PE...i'm asking you to understand that you can't make promises that you can't keep...unfortunately, and i'm not lumping YOU with THEM, but there are a lot of uneducated and unfamiliar americans voting on emotion over common sense.  i don't blame anyone for being trust worthy mind you...i blame the tactic of exploiting the publics emotional grief.

How incredibly brazen of you to think that you know that he knew he couldn't keep those promises. Nevermind the fact that we are fighting over an issue that he campaigned on that probably won him no votes yet cost him votes. I don't know one single person that voted for Obama because he was going to raise taxes on the rich. If he promised to lower taxes by 50% on every citizen and then gave us the finger after the election then I could see questioning him.

Recession was being seriously considered in 2005/2006 as a possibility for the U.S. economy....everyone knows you aren't going to be able to raise taxes during a recession.

Here's an article from Nouriel Roubini in December 07...he does a good job of pulling all the indicators together (includes labor, housing, corporate earnings, etc): http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/234306

I can understand your line of thinking...no, nobody could have predicted exactly how bad it would get or exactly how all the parts would be affected....but plenty of folks saw a HARD landing for the US economy. Our leaders, however, choose terrible advisers, particularly when it comes to economics. Ron Paul has been preaching this stuff for years now...but then again, being a student of Austrian economics, he has a clearer understanding of it than 99% of our leaders.

Makes many good points and yet even the author makes a point to show the possibly of the hard fall not happening due to fed intervention.

You familiar with Nickolai Kondratieff's work, E? He basically predicted this with work done back in the 1920s.
http://www.kwaves.com/kond_overview.htm

Then why do you say Obama should have known and bang on him for it but openly endorse the guy that a month before the collapse said the market was in great shape?

Forgive me Rad, I don't remember you posting a year and a half ago that Lehman Bros, Goldman Sachs, Mongan Stanley, AIG were all going to collapse. Did I forget any? Please feel free since Wall Street predicts EVERYTHING to go find your posts about that coming.

i'm banging on obama for making a promise he can't keep and in effect, i'm accusing him of misleading americans by centralizing his platform on raising taxes on the 'haves' and giving back to the 'have nots' when he knows he can't keep it....don't get me wrong, i agree with him. he can't be going out and deter those interested in stimulating the economy by taxing them more than they already are...i agree with his change in position...i feel for those democrats who don't agree with me however as PE obama has pulled a percy harvin-like headfake and will not follow through on his campaign promise.


as for me posting about the financial crisis 2 years ago...i can come up with nothing...the financial forum has only been up since march/april and i tended to post more about non-business type stuff to pass the time and be humorous...i assure you though that the precursors to what you've discovered to have happened the last month or so has been in motion for at least 1.5 years, maybe more....CIT writedowns, CDS spread widening in certain names, certain industries...repo rate and overnight lending rate manipulations, flight to quality trades, diminishing interest in US dollar securities by foreign central banks, hedge fund liquidations and insolvencies, tightening of the labor market as it relates to the banking and finance industry, diminishing merger and acquisition activity, massive slowdown in the high yield credit markets, push by borrowers (companies) to borrow despite egregious market levels as compared on a historic basis, etc.

Article published online Dec 31 2007:

Robert Shiller, Professor of Economics at Yale University, predicted that there was a very real possibility that the US would be plunged into a Japan-style slump, with house prices declining for years.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3111659.ece

Find a thousand people that knew they were all going to happen and I will criticize Obama for not knowing.

i'm not asking you to criticize the PE...i'm asking you to understand that you can't make promises that you can't keep...unfortunately, and i'm not lumping YOU with THEM, but there are a lot of uneducated and unfamiliar americans voting on emotion over common sense. i don't blame anyone for being trust worthy mind you...i blame the tactic of exploiting the publics emotional grief.

How incredibly brazen of you to think that you know that he knew he couldn't keep those promises. Nevermind the fact that we are fighting over an issue that he campaigned on that probably won him no votes yet cost him votes. I don't know one single person that voted for Obama because he was going to raise taxes on the rich. If he promised to lower taxes by 50% on every citizen and then gave us the finger after the election then I could see questioning him.

eric - mccain was the one saying that PE obama was making a grave mistake by raising taxes....you can't do this and hope to stimulate the economy...can't do it yet obama was talking about it all the way up to election day.

you can't.

So you predicted the collapse of all of those companies and I just missed it? What are the powerball numbers for Saturday?

AA, I am not familiar with his work. I will spend some time on the link.

you're off your game homey.

simplistically - the signs of calamity were there for a year, maybe two...and this financial crisis that you seem to think just happened a month ago has been cooking for that long.

to be REAL simple - 24 months ago, based on data and trend, you act w/caution. 23 months ago, based on data and trend, you act w/more caution than the month before. 22 months ago, based on data and trend, you act w/more caution than the month before. 21 months ago, based on data and trend, you act w/more caution than the month before......................................<fast forward>.................................4 months ago, based on data and trend, you act w/more caution than the month before. 3 months ago, based on data and trend, you act w/more caution than the month before.

so i ask. why is it important for you to know if i've predicted the collapse of all these companies when it's perfectly reasonable to understand that these things that happened could've obviously occured based on data and trend? i've never predicted it. i've merely understood that this financial crisis didn't just occur after PE obama's election.

so PE obama changing his mind after his successful election is effectively turning his back on his supporters....people like you who put him there....he's too intelligent to know one can't raise taxes on the 'whatever class' during a financial crisis yet he persisted to parade about 'taking from the rich and giving to the poor' like robin hood would do...more importantly than knowing ONE can not raise taxes in such an environment, he knew HE couldn't raise 'em...he knew it because he's intelligent....that to me was a sham.

My game is tight. I recognize a hater every time I see one. You just keep walking throught life thinking people can never change their mind or stance on any position.