scary for the democrats

IHateUGAlyDawgs · Post by **IHateUGAlyDawgs** » Thu May 29, 2008 8:17 am

The "moral majority" is to blame for that shift urap. I've stuck with the party because I believe in the things that are/were the core values of the party but I am by no means it's biggest supporter at this time. I am registered as that party so I can vote in the primary elections. If I was an indepenent I wouldn't be able to do so.
I'm with you.

I blame the Reagan Revolution. While he courted the religious right to his side, I don't think he would have approved of the amount of influence they now have over the Republican Party.

The Republicans really need to get their shit together if they want to attract swing voters and moderates.

count me in this group as well.

wpfox16 · Post by **wpfox16** » Thu May 29, 2008 9:43 am

The "moral majority" is to blame for that shift urap. I've stuck with the party because I believe in the things that are/were the core values of the party but I am by no means it's biggest supporter at this time. I am registered as that party so I can vote in the primary elections. If I was an indepenent I wouldn't be able to do so.
I'm with you.

I blame the Reagan Revolution. While he courted the religious right to his side, I don't think he would have approved of the amount of influence they now have over the Republican Party.

The Republicans really need to get their shit together if they want to attract swing voters and moderates.
count me in this group as well.

See, I find it very difficult to argue against fiscal conservatism... It's just one of those things where I completely understand the other side's opinion, and I don't blame them for having such feelings. I just see it another way... Who knows, maybe one day I'll come around. It's this new "conservatism" that I take issue with. Ridiculously puerile Foreign policy, legislation of cultural issues of "morality", and MINDLESS jingoism to stir up votes are what keep me incensed. I have a lot of reasonable Republican friends who share that stance as well, and a few that don't. Nominating McCain was the right thing to do for the republican party if they want to begin distancing themselves from this new guard of conservatism... We'll see how fast they can make it happen. If they continue on this path, I truly feel that Americans will respond negatively. I, for one, am sick of the empty discussion the media engages in. Flag pins? Gimme a break. No one should question ANY of the current Presidential candidates patriotism... it's ridiculous. They're running for President of the United States and people seriously believe that crap? Just venture over to too hot sometime (I've been over there a few times recently). One thread is "Can you support the troops and not the war?" There are people over there actually debating this! Luckily, a few current and former soldiers came over and set them straight, but it should not have needed to come to that. There's also a thread about Obama not putting his hand over his heart during the national anthem, complete with quotes from a U.S. code requiring it... Insanity. It's not accurate to say that this is the most divisive time in American Political history, it's far from it, but things need to change. :end rant:

IHateUGAlyDawgs · Post by **IHateUGAlyDawgs** » Fri May 30, 2008 8:52 am

if people voted on issues, there would be overwhelming support for democrats. unfortunately, people in the US are uninterested in politics and national news. they instead rely on catch phrases, marketing and propoganda.

issues such as port security, macroeconomics, separation of power and civil rights are complicated. gay marriage, questioning patriotism and religious wedge issues are easy.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... l_security

When it comes to the economy, 47% of voters trust John McCain more than Barack Obama. Obama is trusted more by 41%. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey also found that, when it comes to the War in Iraq, McCain is trusted more by 49% of voters. Obama is preferred by 37%. McCain has an even larger edge—53% to 31%--on the broader topic of National Security. These results are little changed from a month ago.

Obama enjoys a 43% to 39% advantage when it comes to government ethics and reducing corruption. McCain has a 44% to 38% advantage on taxes.

It is interesting to note that while McCain has the edge over Obama on these issues, Democrats are trusted more than Republicans on a generic basis. This ability of McCain to outperform the party label helps explain why he is competitive with the Democrats in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking poll.

When it comes to the economy, men trust McCain more by a 55% to 33% margin. Among women, Obama has a seven-point edge. Obama has the advantage among voters under 30 while McCain is preferred by their elders. Investors prefer McCain while non-Investors are evenly divided. Union Members prefer Obama 46% to 40%. Government Workers are evenly divided while Entrepreneurs and Private Sector Employees are more likely to trust McCain.

McCain is trusted more by 25% of Democrats. Sixty-four percent (64%) of Democrats trust the likely nominee of their Party.

Recent surveys have found that most voters believe the economic stimulus package has had little impact, most believe that tax hikes are bad for the economy, and 65% oppose an increase in the capital gains tax. The Rasmussen Consumer Index has found consumer and investor confidence at record low levels.

As for the War in Iraq, McCain is trusted more by 85% of Republicans, 22% of Democrats, and 49% of those not affiliated with either major party.

Tracking polls have shown that roughly 6-out-of-ten Americans want troops home from Iraq within a year. However, only about one-in-four want the troops brought home immediately. The gap between those numbers is filled by Americans who both parties have a chance to persuade during Election 2008. A recent survey found that 52% of voters believe it is more important to get U.S. troops out of Iraq than it is to win the War. Expectations are that a McCain Presidency would more likely lead to victory in Iraq while Obama is more likely to get the troops home.

The broader topic of National Security is one of the few issues where Republicans are competitive on a generic basis with Democrats. However, following seven years of the Bush Administration, the GOP advantage on this issue has declined.

On taxes, Republicans are preferred over Democrats, 46% to 42%. McCain is trusted over Clinton 45% to 36% and by a 41% to 38% margin over Obama.

When it comes to government ethics and reducing corruption, both candidates are trusted more by roughly seven-out-of-ten within their own party. Obama has a statistically insignificant two-point edge among unaffiliated voters. What is perhaps more significant is that 28% of unaffiliated voters trust neither candidate on this topic.

wpfox16 · Post by **wpfox16** » Fri May 30, 2008 9:49 am

The fact that people trust McCain more on the economy/war is probably more a function of of the electorate's familiarity with McCain, rather than their knowledge of the issues. I think Urap, and please correct me if I'm wrong, was arguing that if you laid out the issues to Americans, regardless of candidate preference, they would side with Democrats. The evidence supporting this slightly supports his theory, but it's by no means a definite (not to mention the data varies over time).

Toothy · Post by **Toothy** » Fri May 30, 2008 11:52 am

it'll be interesting to see if anyone opens up the old 2000 playbook to see if there's anything still lying around, aside from a black child, that will turn voters against mccain. he wasn't good enough before (still can't believe bush beat him), so what makes him good enough now? the fact that the democrats are putting up a new (half black) guy?

i like to take the cynical view [img]{SMILIES_PATH}/icon_wink.gif[/img]

If it don't mention Diebold, it ain't cynical yet.

TTBHG · Post by **TTBHG** » Fri May 30, 2008 12:26 pm

The fact that people trust McCain more on the economy/war is probably more a function of of the electorate's familiarity with McCain, rather than their knowledge of the issues. I think Urap, and please correct me if I'm wrong, was arguing that if you laid out the issues to Americans, regardless of candidate preference, they would side with Democrats[/size]. The evidence supporting this slightly supports his theory, but it's by no means a definite (not to mention the data varies over time).

Why is there a Republican party then?

annarborgator · Post by **annarborgator** » Fri May 30, 2008 12:41 pm

I think urap said the majority would side with the dems...doesn't mean there's no minority.

TTBHG · Post by **TTBHG** » Fri May 30, 2008 12:46 pm

I think urap said the majority would side with the dems...doesn't mean there's no minority.

Let me re-phrase. Why do Republicans get elected to office then? Takes a majority(most of the time) to get elected.

annarborgator · Post by **annarborgator** » Fri May 30, 2008 12:51 pm

The argument would be that voters use other factors outside pure "issues" to make their choices in the voting booth. Many folks simply vote along party lines, for any number of reasons.

TTBHG · Post by **TTBHG** » Fri May 30, 2008 12:53 pm

The argument would be that voters use other factors outside pure "issues" to make their choices in the voting booth. Many folks simply vote along party lines, for any number of reasons.

So, people are stupid?

annarborgator · Post by **annarborgator** » Fri May 30, 2008 1:18 pm

I'm not sure that's the most logical conclusion of the thought process...I think it's fair to take other factors into account aside from pure "issue" analysis. I think temperament matters, I think experience matters and I think record matters, all of which may motivate a candidate's stance on the issues, but all are factors I consider to be separate from the issues themselves.

When in predictive situations, like picking your leader for the next 4 years, it's difficult to figure out exactly what or how they will go about doing their job. I think it's more than issues.

TTBHG · Post by **TTBHG** » Fri May 30, 2008 1:46 pm

When in predictive situations, like picking your leader for the next 4 years, it's difficult to figure out exactly what or how they will go about doing their job. I think it's more than issues.

I vote for the guy most likely to OD on coke while banging a prostitute. That, my friend, is true leadership.

Toothy · Post by **Toothy** » Fri May 30, 2008 3:44 pm

[img]http://l.yimg.com/img.tv.yahoo.com/tv/u ... Gxwg.QbQ--[/img]

wpfox16 · Post by **wpfox16** » Fri May 30, 2008 6:36 pm

When in predictive situations, like picking your leader for the next 4 years, it's difficult to figure out exactly what or how they will go about doing their job. I think it's more than issues.
I vote for the guy most likely to OD on coke while banging a prostitute. That, my friend, is true leadership.

It's definitely more than issues... That's what the study of political behavior (my forte!) is all about. Voters use many shortcuts to simplify politics and manage the complexities of the entire process. People often use political cues, or heuristics, to orient themselves to politics.

TheTodd · Post by **TheTodd** » Sat May 31, 2008 1:49 am

[img]http://l.yimg.com/img.tv.yahoo.com/tv/u ... Gxwg.QbQ--[/img]

motherfucking werd!

slideman67 · Post by **slideman67** » Mon Jun 02, 2008 4:59 pm

I disagree that Obama has a problem with working class whites. He has a problem with working class whites who live in Appalachia. He has won states like Wisconsin, Utah, Oregon, North Dakota, Idaho etc where the African American population is small. He will also win Montana and South Dakota, not exactly population centers for African Americans.

I do think that racism in Appalachia plays a role. When reporters talk about "cultural differences", it is a kind way of saying racist attitudes.

I am an Obama precinct captain here in Austin and I was a delegate for him at the Travis County Democratic Convention. I have made phone calls for his campaign here and around the country. I am also a card carrying member of the Democratic National Committee. So I am a little biased. However, I would say this to everyone here - read his book The Audacity of Hope. He lays out his ideas on all issues, both domestic policy and foreign policy. In my opinion, I think people on both sides of the political fence would agree with much if not all of what he says. In no place in this book does he espouse radical left wing ideas. In fact, in pretty much every issue he acknowledges that those he disagrees with politically have valid points of view - a much radical difference than the simple minded "with us or against us" idiocy of the current occupant of the White House. For the first time in my political life, I am actually excited about voting FOR someone instead of against someone else.

Check out the book - I think you might like it.

I also have to say that it very nice to have a civil political discussion on this board. Politicas is a hobby of mine as both of my parents were in politics - Dad was a Democratic Executive Committee member in Wisconsin and ran Presidential campaigns in the state. He ran every campaign for Hubert Humphrey in Wisconsin. The last job Mom had before I was born was as the Executive Assistant to the Postmaster General from 1963-65. At that time it was still a Cabinet post, so Mom used to go to Cabinet meetings and sit in the back. So you could say it is in my blood.

My sister lives in Austin and she has mentioned wanting to get involved in the Obama campaign... What advice would you give her? She just quit her job as the head research epidemiologist for the Texas cancer registry, so time isn't an issue...

Also, I agree with your point that Obama has a problem with working class whites. As I mentioned, a lot of the vitriol comes from places (like Appalachia and poor regions in the South) where competition has existed for generations among poor whites and blacks. The discussion of politics is also a hobby of mine, and hopefully my profession in a few years... Good to see we have some other lefties in the BA!

slideman67 · Post by **slideman67** » Mon Jun 02, 2008 5:02 pm

The "moral majority" is to blame for that shift urap. I've stuck with the party because I believe in the things that are/were the core values of the party but I am by no means it's biggest supporter at this time. I am registered as that party so I can vote in the primary elections. If I was an indepenent I wouldn't be able to do so.
I'm with you.

I blame the Reagan Revolution. While he courted the religious right to his side, I don't think he would have approved of the amount of influence they now have over the Republican Party.

The Republicans really need to get their shit together if they want to attract swing voters and moderates.
count me in this group as well.

That won't happen for a LONG time as the arch conservatives have taken over state parties in many states. If you want some comical reading, you should check out the Texas Republican Party platform - some scary stuff there.

TheTodd · Post by **TheTodd** » Mon Jun 02, 2008 6:55 pm

I don't want to have anything to do with Texas. You f'ers can succeed all you want, I know where to build the fence! [img]{SMILIES_PATH}/ride.gif[/img]

slideman67 · Post by **slideman67** » Mon Jun 02, 2008 8:41 pm

Actually, if it ever came up for a vote, it probably would pass.

annarborgator · Post by **annarborgator** » Mon Jun 02, 2008 8:48 pm

I'm about 80% of the way through Ron Paul's new book and I think I might vote this November, for the first time, in order to write in Ron Paul.

wpfox16 · Post by **wpfox16** » Sun Jun 22, 2008 2:18 pm

McCain is leading Obama by more and more electoral votes as time passes

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/O ... May22.html

Electoral Votes: Obama 242 McCain 285 Ties 11

and just for shits and giggles:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/C ... May22.html

Electoral Votes: Clinton 310 McCain 211 Ties 1

fwiw - but it looks like mccain has a nice head start and the gop hasn't even started to unload on barack.

Check out the latest numbers, raddy.... I saw this coming

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

annarborgator · Post by **annarborgator** » Sun Jun 22, 2008 2:37 pm

Holy shit. Obama with a dem senate and congress? Hello, comrades!

slideman67 · Post by **slideman67** » Sun Jun 22, 2008 9:29 pm

Actually, that will be a very good thing. [img]{SMILIES_PATH}/icon_smile.gif[/img]

annarborgator · Post by **annarborgator** » Sun Jun 22, 2008 9:45 pm

I guess our definitions of "very good" are a little different. Interesting to me that so many people support socialism.

slideman67 · Post by **slideman67** » Sun Jun 22, 2008 10:49 pm

So if you are a Democrat, that makes you a socialist?

Do we really want to go down this path?