Basketball Confidential

[TheTodd]

The fun and games are over for the Florida Gators. The non-conference schedule is history and the Gators fared well with a 13-2 record but now they have to get into the SEC grind and that's when we'll know just how far Coach Billy Donovan's young team has come and how far they have to go. In this edition of the Basketball Confidential, we'll cover the Gators, recruiting and take a look at the SEC.

Sorry I haven't been posting much the last few weeks but between trying to cover football and basketball simultaneously, plus the Heisman Trophy and on top of that fighting off the flu for almost a month, I've fallen behind on the coverage. That won't happen again!

WHAT WAS ACCOMPLISHED IN THE NON-CONFERENCE GAMES?: The non-conference schedule wasn't exactly the strongest in the world but considering how young the Gators are, I think it was a necessity to go light and it has paid off. First, all nine scholarship players got playing time in every single game and all of them had the confidence boost of a double figures scoring game. I think that's huge. Second, by the time there were some injuries to work through, there were experienced players to plug in. Third, the lighter conference schedule allowed a player like Jonathan Mitchell to come out of his shell. I think he's going to have a nice role in whatever success the Gators have the rest of the way. He's 240 pounds, tough, willing to play defense and isn't afraid to mix it up in the post. And, he's a far better three-point shooter than anyone imagined, which means that when he plays the high post he can step out to the wing and stretch defenses. I think there are going to be nights in the SEC when the Gators can't miss a shot and I think there are going to be nights when they struggle. I think 8-8 or even 9-7 is possible in the league if they can win the hustle stats (diving for loose balls, tipping rebounds to teammates, deflecting passes, taking charges, getting back on defense) and avoid prolonged shooting lapses.

WERNER'S THE BIGGEST SURPRISE: Dan Werner is tougher than I expected. I didn't know he had the physical toughness to hang in there on the inside but he's shown that he has it. He's not going to wow you athletically, but he will put a body on someone and he understands playing for position. There are some folks out there who think he's not been much of a contributor but I think anyone that can't see how positively he's affected the team has no clue about basketball. He's averaging 7.3 rebounds per game and that puts him in the top ten in the SEC. I think a lot of folks have no idea how tough it is to get seven rebounds a game at this level.

THE FAB FIVE: I think the freshmen have all made significant contributions. Nick Calathes fills up the stat sheets. He may not look quick enough and he certainly doesn't jump well, but he has a basketball IQ that is off the charts. He just knows how to play the game and that's why he's got these numbers: 14. 8 points per game, 5.73 assists per game, 4.7 rebounds per game and 1.73 steals per game. I think he has become more aware of when to and when not to shoot, too, so I only see him improving on the offensive end. Defensively, I think he still has a tendency to look for steals when he needs to be more aware of positioning and help, but that will come with experience. I like the way Jai Lucas is developing. He's a better defender than I thought he was. The little floater in the lane is an effective shot but he's got to learn to pick his spots better. He's too good a three-point shooter (44.7 percent) to stand flatfooted on the perimeter. He needs to be looking for holes in the defense so he can spot up. Chandler Parsons is going to be an absolute beast when he gets up to 230 pounds. He's re-discovered his three-point stroke so let's hope he doesn't go into another shooting slump. When he's at the high post, he's a very creative passer. When he gets some upper body strength he will be a better defender in the post, but I like his effort and the fact he will fight for rebounds. Once Adam Allen gets comfortable playing defense on the perimeter, he's going to be just fine. He's maybe the best pure shooter on the team and that includes Parsons. He got slowed by an ankle and when he came back he struggled on the defensive end and that affected his offensive game (some uncharacteristic turnovers). I think the extra practices during the holidays have helped to settle him down. Alex Tyus is close to being 100 percent pain free from that bruised tailbone from a hard fall he took in practice. In the last game, he showed a couple of offensive moves we haven't seen. He will need to be more of a factor on that end now that the SEC season has begun. He's a better off the ball defender still, but he's starting to get the hang of defending straight up.

IMPROVED PLAY BY SPEIGHTS: I've been particularly pleased with the way Marreese Speights' game has come around. Getting 31 minutes of playing time against High Point was huge and the numbers reflected it. Because of the lack of size, he's going to have to average 28-32 minutes per game in the SEC. I think he can handle that on the offensive end because he really is gifted there. He is a very explosive scorer in the low blocks. Defensively is where there are concerns because he's by nature quite aggressive in going after shots, and that's the place big guys tend to get in foul trouble. If he can learn to be more selective about the shots he tries to block, then I think he can have a really good year in the SEC. He will get a huge test Tuesday night when he has to go head to head with Richard Hendrix of Alabama. One place where you can see the improvement for Speights is in the hustle stats. He's led the team the last couple of games and that's usually reserved for Werner.

TIME FOR WALTER TO STEP UP: Now that we're in the SEC, Walter Hodge has to start shooting better from the three-point line. He's at 36.2 percent and he's got to get in the 40s to stretch the defenses. With freshmen playing the other two guards, Hodge has to find some consistency. He has been very good taking the ball to the rack, but he has to provide some sort of scoring punch from the outside. Defensively, he takes the best player on the perimeter and with the exception of a couple of games, he's been solid.

ON THE RECRUITING FRONT: Despite what you might hear in other places, the Gators are still in the lead for point guard deluxe Dexter Strickland (6-3, 175, Elizabeth, NJ St. Patrick's). North Carolina has made a serious run at him and closed the gap, but Florida still has the lead. He did not commit over the Thanksgiving holidays as was originally expected, but he still has Florida at the top. I think he is waiting to see what North Carolina point guard Ty Lawson does. If Lawson stays, I think Dexter is a Gator. If he goes, I think he might go to Carolina ... I think Florida is also in good with Kenny Boynton (6-2, 180, Pompano Beach, FL American Heritage). Boynton is an incredible scorer but there are concerns about his ability to share the ball. It's not helping Eloy Vargas (6-10, 220, Plantation, FL American Heritage) to be playing on the same team with Boynton and Ray Taylor (5-3, 130, Plantation, FL American Heritage). Vargas rarely sees the ball unless he rebounds and gets a stick back ... The real question is how many can Florida take for the Class of 2009? I think this is going to be a one-man class, two at the most. I know the Gators would like a second if it's possible and the guy I like is Ari Stewart (6-7, 200, Marietta, GA Wheeler), who is a slasher that can get to the rack and kill on the boards.

ALABAMA (11-4): The lack of an experienced point guard has hurt the Crimson Tide, but the most glaring weakness is on the defensive end. Alabama is either dead last or next to last in the SEC in three critical categories, giving up 71.9 points per game and a league worst 43.5 percent field goal percentage and 35.9 percent from the three-point stripe. Hendrix (19.1 points, 10.1 rebounds per game) and Alonzo Gee (15.9 points, 8.3 rebounds per game) are as good as gone to the NBA after this year. There is a quality win over Iowa State (10-5) and a loss to Belmont of the Atlantic Sun Conference on the schedule along with near misses against Southeastern Louisiana and Wofford.

ARKANSAS (11-3): There is no shortage of talent but that's not to say the adjustment to a new coach has been smooth. John Pelphrey has Arkansas playing better defense than ever before (allowing 62.6 points per game, second only to Florida) but the Razorbacks are the gang that couldn't shoot straight from the three-point line (31 percent). With that big, talented front line, someone is going to have to step it up from long distance or else everybody is going to pack a zone against the Razorbacks. The Razorbacks force a ton of turnovers (18 per game) but they're turning it over plenty (17.3 per game). Point guards Gary Ervin and Stefan Welsh combine for 6.1 assists and 4.5 turnovers per game and they are a combined 24-73 (32.8 percent) from the three-point line. Wings Patrick Beverly and Sonny Weems are a combined 32-101 (31.6 percent) from long distance. There are good wins over VCU, Missouri and Baylor and a shocking loss to Appalachian State on the agenda.

AUBURN (9-3): The 9-3 record looks good until you realize the Tigers haven't beaten a team with a winning record. The only three teams they have played with winning records have won by 15, 29 and 23 points. The Tigers rank dead last in scoring offense (69.9 per game) and they're ninth in the league in rebounding margin (+1.9 per game). They are next to last in three-point shooting (32.5 percent). Kovortney Barber (14 points, 6.9 rebounds) is having a good year but he's getting very little help on the boards. The closest thing to a signature win is a four-point win over a so-so George Washington team (4-7) on the road.

GEORGIA (8-4): Before the season began Dennis Felton kicked Mike Mercer and Takais Brown off the team, only Georgia's two best players. Now Rashad Singleton, at 7-2 the only serious height, has been 86'd. You can expect Felton to resort to what he's always done when he's short-handed and that means the no autopsy, no foul approach to defense. Georgia ranks among the SEC leaders in scoring defense (64.8 per game) and field goal defense (40.4 percent). Sundiata Gaines (it only seems like he's an eighth-year senior) is having a solid year --- 12.6 points, 4.83 assists and 2.25 steals per game. The best win is over Wake Forest and all four losses have been to teams with winning records. Georgia is improved over last year but not that much. The SEC will grind the Dogs down.

KENTUCKY (6-7): The love affair with Billy Clyde Gillispie ended a long time ago. Now the Cat faithful are asking themselves should this be anything more than a one-and-done? The only team the Cats have beaten that has a winning record is Central Arkansas. There are some bad losses to Gardner-Webb and San Diego. There is no such thing as a signature win. Gillispie is trying to go with a four-guard lineup with Patrick Patterson in the middle. Kentucky is so bad and the future is bleak enough that you can just about lock in Patrick for early entry into the NBA. Patterson is averaging 16.8 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. He doesn't get a lot of help on the boards (Kentucky averages just 34 rebounds per game). Derrick Jasper has returned after microfracture surgery. That will help defensively but he's never going to be much of a scoring threat. A break even season should be considered a miracle. A telling sign --- the Cats are averaging only 21,000 per game in 24,000-seat Rupp Arena. That's unheard of.

LSU (7-7): Tasmin Mitchell had ankle surgery back in November so LSU is without its best player. Losing his experience and scoring has hurt the Tigers who have lost four games in the last couple of minutes. Freshman Anthony Randolph is having an exceptional first year, averaging 13.9 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.71 blocks and 1.53 steals per game. LSU is the worst shooting team in the league (44.5 percent) and the Tigers are next to last in scoring (70.6). The worst game for LSU was a one-point loss to Villanova in which they blew a 21-point lead in the last eight minutes of the game. Southeastern Louisiana (8-5) is the only team with a winning record that LSU has beaten. The Tigers have lost three in a row and it's not going to get easier.

MISSISSIPPI STATE (9-5): After a bad start, the Bulldogs have won their last four games impressively so perhaps the ship has been righted. This is a team with enough size and experience to be a serious factor in the SEC race. JaMont Gordon (17.5 points, 6.4 rebounds, 4.57 assists) is having the kind of season that lets you know he won't be back for his senior year. As long as Charles Rhodes (15.6 points, 7.1 rebounds) can stay out of foul trouble, the Bulldogs should be very good on the inside. Mississippi State ranks third in the league in scoring defense (63.5 per game) and first in the league in field goal defense (37.3 percent). There is a buzzer-beater loss to Clemson on the resume and a nice win over Missouri.

OLE MISS (13-0): The bubble should burst for Andy Kennedy's Rebels Wednesday night in Knoxville. This is the best start in Ole Miss history and it includes quality wins over South Alabama, New Mexico and then 15th-ranked Clemson. Ole Miss is the best rebounding team in the league so far and third in the league in scoring (86.2 per game). Only Tennessee launches more three-balls than Ole Miss. Dwayne Curtis (6-8, 260) is having an outstanding season for the Rebels, averaging 15.2 points and 8.2 rebounds per game but that was expected. What wasn't expected was freshman point guard Chris Warren out of Orlando's Dr. Phillips. He's averaging 15.2 points and 5.6 assists per game. Ex-Gator David Huertas is averaging 10.6 points per game and starting to break out of a bad shooting slump (he's 23-72 on three-pointers). If the Rebels come out of Tennessee with a win, they're for real. If they lose, then they'll have to prove that they belong.

SOUTH CAROLINA (8-6): The Gamecocks lost to UNC-Asheville when 7-7, 360-pound Kenny George got a last-second dunk. UNC-A isn't that bad but tell that to Gamecock fans who are not exactly thrilled with the state of the program. They have a beautiful 18,000-seat palace to play in and they're averaging only 11,000 per game. Unless they somehow find some excitement and win some games, this looks like it could be the last rodeo for coach Dave Odom, a genuinely nice guy but maybe someone who's sell by date has expired. The Gamecocks have a couple of good guards in Georgia Tech transfer Zam Frederick (16 points per game) and Cincinnati transfer Devean Downey (18.6 points and 5.36 assists). The best win is over Providence (9-5) and there are close losses to NC State and George Mason.

TENNESSEE (12-1): Bruce Pearl has the Vols scoring more than any team in the league (87.4) and winning by an average of 18.8 points per game against a schedule that includes Texas (loss) and wins over West Virginia, Xavier and Gonzaga. The formula is the same as it has been since Pearl came into the league --- launch the three-ball early and often. Try 27 threes per game. Chris Lofton hasn't been shooting well (33.6 percent on long distance jobs) but the Vols get plenty of chippies off the turnovers they're forcing (22.3 per game). Tennessee is best in the league at taking care of the ball (12.5 turnovers per game). The Vols also do it with depth --- 12 players are averaging at least 15.9 minutes per game. Transfers Tyler Smith (12.6 points, 5.5 rebounds) and J.P. Prince (14 points, 4 rebounds) are the kind of players that could get the Vols deep into the NCAA Tournament. This is a team that has a chance to make the Final Four.

VANDERBILT (15-0): The Commodores are 15-0 because freshman center A.J. Ogilvy is better than anyone dreamed he would be. The 6-11 Australian is averaging 19.3 points and 7.3 rebounds per game while shooting 65.8 percent from the field and 80.2 percent from the foul line. In 15 games he's gotten to the foul line 111 times. Ogilvy's presence has opened the floor up for Shan Foster, who is leading the league at 21.1 points per game. The Commodores are second in the league in scoring (87.3) but dead last in scoring defense (75.6). The schedule includes wins over Georgia Tech, South Alabama and Wake Forest. Circle January 17 on your calendar. Vandy is at Tennessee and that probably will be the end of the winning streak.