Random thoughts as Florida enters the second half of the season:
1) The defense better get better quickly.
If you had told UF's defensive coaches in August that Florida would be second in the SEC in rushing defense and fifth in total defense after six games, they would have been happy. With three new starters at linebacker and zero proven tackles, UF appeared incredibly shaky against the run.
Instead, the Gators shut down the ground games of Tennessee and Ole Miss, limiting the Rebels to an SEC-low 80 rushing yards and Tennessee to 37 rushing yards. The Vols have gained at least 188 in each of their three games since then. Against Auburn, the Gators gave up 154 rushing yards to a team that has rushed for at least 189 yards in every other SEC game. LSU, which gouged the Gators for 254 yards on the ground, had even higher totals against South Carolina and Kentucky.
That's the good news. The bad news is UF's soft defensive approach won't hold up for the rest of the season. The Gators have been forcing teams to nickel and dime their way down the field, giving up no long runs while the defensive backs try to keep every pass in front of them.
Kentucky, South Carolina and even Georgia are good enough to go that route and keep the ball, wearing down a thin defense and preventing Tim Tebow and company from doing enough damage.
Opponents are completing 59.5 percent of their passes, a considerably higher percentage than any other year in UF history. The worst number for a full season was 55.6 in 1993, but the coaches are not confident their freshman cornerbacks Joe Haden and Wondy Pierre-Louis can hang with receivers in tight coverage, so they are playing well off the ball and coming up to make the tackle after the catch.
That approach can work with a dominant run defense, but it is hard to see how UF can keep up its pace from the first half of the season. Cracks started to show against LSU as senior tailback Jacob Hester rushed 23 times for 106 yards, getting over the 100-yard barrier for the first time in his career. He managed only 61 yards on 18 carries against Kentucky.
If teams start running for first downs, the Gator D never will be able to get off the field. Florida has to become more aggressive defensively or start forcing turnovers (it has a paltry eight after six games) to put itself in position to win the SEC East.
2) SEC contenders and pretenders finally will be separated this Saturday.
I preach against what I call one game-itis all the time, where a team's complete worth is determined by its previous game, but I've fallen victim to that disease myself this week.
After believing all year that Florida was too talented overall to lose to Kentucky, I'm not so sure anymore. The Wildcats win over LSU appeared to be no fluke – they have better skill-position players across the board than the Tigers. Yet, nine days earlier, they looked outclassed by South Carolina, and their last-minute home victory over Louisville was devalued when the Cardinals lost to Syracuse and Utah.
All year I've thought LSU was a lock to beat Auburn because Auburn's pedestrian offense won't be able to score. But LSU's defense looked vulnerable against Florida and downright shaky against Kentucky. Auburn's D appeared more solid fundamentally than LSU against Florida.
The one game I have no doubt about is Tennessee-Alabama. You have to have tremendous belief in Nick Saban to back 'Bama in this one. Tennessee's two losses were at California and Florida, two potential BCS bowl teams. Alabama's two losses were to FSU in Jacksonville and Georgia at home. The Vols are better than the Crimson Tide and will win this Saturday.
If my season-long view holds up, LSU will take control of the West and Kentucky will return to pretender status. If my feeling of the last five days proves correct, LSU will have gone from unanimous No. 1 in the polls to SEC West also-ran in two weeks and Florida will be sweating out its SEC East survival until the final play Saturday.
3) I'm six feet under in two out of three categories of Over and Under.
Two of the three categories in my preseason Over and Under column already have been settled, and the third is virtually certain.
The first Over and Under was that 2 ½ true freshman, discounting punter Chas Henry, would be starting by the end of the season. I went under, but Haden, safety Major Wright and offensive guard Maurkice Pouncey have become starters.
Technically, I could still be right if one of them gets hurt, but that was not the point of the question. All three have become legitimate full-time starters.
The second Over and Under was Florida losing ½ of a home game. I went under, and Auburn went over Florida to take care of that one. I was almost right, though. Auburn needed a last-play field goal to prevent overtime, and Florida is a lock to beat one of its two remaining opponents in the Swamp.
The other game is against Vanderbilt.
Even though I will be right on the third Over and Under – Tebow rushing for 631 yards (the number Alex Smith had at Utah in 2004), I'm more disappointed in that one than the other two. The point of Over and Under is to pick numbers very close to the actual total, and Tebow, who has 500 rushing yards after six games, will cruise past 631 against Georgia if he remains healthy. That one was too easy.