Football teams improve the most in between their first and second games.
If you've heard that cliché once, you've heard it from someone other than Florida coach Urban Meyer. Thankfully, he does not believe in the principle, which ranks right up there with "all calls even out" (Oh really? Like in the Florida-FSU game of 2003?) as one of the most asinine ideas in sports.
It's counterintuitive. Just open your eyes and you'll see some teams play better in their second games, and some teams play worse.
Last year, Tennessee clobbered California 35-18 to start the season. The Vols led 35-0 in the third quarter before coasting in what was supposed to be a competitive matchup between ranked teams. The next week, Tennessee had to stop a late 2-point conversion attempt to beat Air Force 31-30. The Falcons rolled up more than 400 yards.
No improvement there. Tennessee peaked emotionally for the Cal game after ending 2005 with an embarrassing loss to Vanderbilt, then came out flat against Air Force.
USC went on the road and beat Arkansas 50-14 in its first game last year. The Trojans were much less impressive in a 28-10 victory over Nebraska at home the following week.
The idea is based on a tiny bit of truth. First-year players can be nervous and unsure of themselves in their opening game, so some of Florida's freshmen will be more comfortable this Saturday against Troy than they were against Western Kentucky.
"Especially when you have a young team, it's their first opportunity to play in a live situation," Meyer said. "We had 14 true freshman who had their first live experience in their home stadium. You can say the jitters aren't involved, but they are. I've seen it for 20 years now, from a dry mouth to not getting lined up correctly. Hopefully we got that out of the way."
Meyer's teams are 5-1 in week No. 2, with no discernible difference in the way they played their first and second games. In 2001, Bowling Green upset Missouri 20-13 in his first game as a head coach and followed that trend-setting win by beating hapless Buffalo 35-0. In 2002, Bowling Green pounded Tennessee Tech 41-7 before mauling Missouri 51-28, proving the 2001 victory was no fluke.
In 2003, Utah eased past Utah State 40-20 before losing a 28-26 heartbreaker at Texas A&M on a missed 2-point conversion with eight seconds left. In 2004, Utah hammered Texas A&M 41-21 at home in its opener before beating Arizona 23-6 on the road.
For Florida, improvement from the first to the second game is irrelevant because the Gators play two patsies to start the season. In 2005, Meyer's first year in Gainesville, they beat Wyoming 32-14 and Louisiana Tech 41-3. Last year, they hammered Southern Miss 34-7 and UCF 42-0.
Interestingly, Meyer's teams have given up nine points combined in the second game the last three years. If that trend continues against Troy, fans will feel a little more comfortable about the young defense entering the pivotal match-up with Tennessee.
Given their historical success against the Vols, the Gators improve the most between their second and third games.
Men of Troy
If history is any indication, Troy won't be trounced Saturday.
Since moving up to Division 1-A in 2001, the Trojans have played seven games against SEC teams and have been respectable in all of them. Troy beat Mississippi State 21-9 in 2001, lost 11-8 to Mississippi State and 23-0 to Arkansas in 2002, lost 17-7 to South Carolina and 24-20 to LSU in 2004, lost 45-20 to South Carolina in 2005 and lost 46-26 to Arkansas last Saturday.
LSU was coming off a BCS national championship in 2004 when it barely avoided a monumental upset against Troy. Arkansas went to the SEC Championship Game in 2002. South Carolina went to a bowl game last season. Arkansas, the defending SEC West champion, led only 23-17 at the half last Saturday.
Troy won't win Saturday, but the Trojans are good enough to give the Gators a test. At least we'll learn something about Florida after learning almost nothing against Western Kentucky, particularly in pass defense. Troy quarterback Omar Haugabrook, the 2006 Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year, was a dismal 15 of 43 against Arkansas. If he lights up Florida's secondary, the Gators will have a real concern as they prepare for Tennessee and Erik Ainge.
SEC Dominance
Is the SEC about to have the best season any conference has had in college football history? Of course not, but more than one analyst has postulated that theory in recent weeks.
The SEC is hot right now for two reasons. One, the league proved it was the nation's best last year with a dominant bowl performance, ending with Florida flattening Ohio State in the BCS championship game. Two, with the hiring of Nick Saban at Alabama, the SEC strengthened an already strong group of coaches. The net gain of Meyer replacing Ron Zook, Steve Spurrier replacing a burned out Lou Holtz at South Carolina and Mark Richt replacing Jim Donnan at Georgia and Saban replacing Mike Shula at Alabama is off the charts, ending an era of underachieving programs.
This year, though, too many SEC schools have too many questions. UF has to rebuild its defense. Tennessee has no running game or pass defense. Georgia looked good against Oklahoma State, but the Bulldogs will need more than one strong week to make everyone forget about last year's problems. South Carolina has not beaten anyone of consequence under Spurrier other than Florida in 2005. Auburn has no offense. Alabama is a work in progress, and Saban has no track record as a miracle maker. Arkansas had a turbulent offseason.
Tennessee flunked the league's first exam, losing 45-31 at California in the only SEC-Pac-10 match-up while giving up 471 yards. With the exception of Arkansas, which has a pitiful non-conference schedule of Troy, North Texas, Chattanooga and Florida International, every SEC team faces an opponent of similar ability, and I'll keep track of the results in this space with a letter grade and commentary for each game.
The list:
Tennessee v. California (road, Sept. 1)
LSU v. Virginia Tech (home, Sept. 8)
Ole Miss v. Missouri (home, Sept. 8)
Kentucky v. Louisville (home, Sept. 15)
Alabama v. Florida State (Jacksonville, Sept. 29)
South Carolina v. North Carolina (road, Oct. 13)
Georgia v. Georgia Tech (road, Nov. 24)
Florida v. Florida State (home, Nov. 24
Vanderbilt v. Wake Forest (home, Nov. 24)
Obviously, Kentucky will be sizeable underdog against Louisville, so I'll grade on the curve for that one. Playing at home, Auburn is a solid favorite against South Florida, so the Tigers need to earn the style points they lacked against Kansas State.