cohen commentary : it's go time
Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2007 12:43 pm
Before we get to a little conversation about Florida's game tomorrow, here are a few morsels of SEC stuff to chew on:
* Unlike most seasons, there are no weekends in the 2007 campaign where all the action features SEC teams squaring off against each other. Usually there is one weekend a year featuring six league contests, a little brotherly in-fighting down South. But it doesn't happen this season.
Every week there is at least one non-conference matchup and there are only two weeks where every SEC team is in action – this weekend and on Sept. 15. The remaining 11 weeks feature at least one team with an open date, even next week, when Arkansas takes a break after battling with Troy, only to play 11 games in a row. Not an ideal schedule setup, if you ask me.
Sometimes when a team has its open date is a huge factor in determining the course of its season. Florida has certainly benefited in recent years by being able to catch its breath before facing Georgia, a luxury it will not enjoy this season. Instead, the open date comes a week earlier, right after back-to-back matchups with Auburn and LSU, and before a trip to Lexington to face Kentucky the week prior to Georgia.
Having an open date at the exact midpoint, after six games with six more to go, would seem like the ideal way to arrange a schedule, but Florida is the only team off in Week Seven. In fact, the only other team in the league that plays less than eight consecutive games to either open or close the season is Georgia, which begins 2007 with seven straight before taking a break and finishing with five in a row.
Alabama opens with eight in a row, while Arkansas, like mentioned earlier, plays 11 straight. Auburn, which was forced by the league to move its annual affair with Alabama to Thanksgiving weekend, opens with 11 consecutive games before the open date and subsequent tussle with the Tide. Although the schedule does feature eight home games, Auburn's four tough road contests at Florida, Georgia, LSU and Arkansas plus a streak off 11 in a row puts a mighty burden on the Tigers this fall.
The rest of the league – Kentucky opens with nine in a row, LSU with eight, Ole Miss with 10, Mississippi State with nine, South Carolina with 11, Tennessee with four, then an open date and eight straight to wind up the season and Vandy, like Tennessee, with three, an open date and then nine in a row to end the campaign.
For my money, seven straight is the most to ask of a team. Physically and mentally, playing in this league is taxing and playing more than seven in a row is putting your team's chances in peril. Last year Arkansas played eight in a row after a late September open date, which might have contributed to its three-game losing skid to close the season (although the losses were to LSU and Florida and then Wisconsin in the Capital One Bowl after a month or so off, so maybe that stretches the point, but hey, it works).
Obviously scheduling is only one component of how a team will fare during a respective season. And sometimes it can be over-stated – last year's schedule was supposed to be a crippler for Florida, and while it was arduous, it proved to be tougher on paper in August than it actuality in the fall.
Next year, with the calendar breaking in such a way to allow teams to start the season in August and have 14 weeks to play 12 games, creating two open dates, it will be interesting to see how schools' utilize that option. Wonder if the Big Ten will still play 12 straight games with no open dates and then sit around and watch everyone else play for a couple of weeks. Still have to explain that one to me . . .
After last night's LSU-Mississippi State snoozer to kick off the college season on ESPN, there is only one more league game on a Thursday night, but it should be a very interesting one, when South Carolina hosts Kentucky on Oct. 4, a pair of programs tired of being on the outside looking in at the big dogs in the East.
This will be a huge game for Kentucky, which has a tremendous opportunity to make a statement considering that LSU and Florida come to Lexington the following two weeks. For South Carolina, it could be a must game for the Gamecocks, who open SEC play with road games at Georgia and LSU.
In fact, the Georgia game on Sept. 8 looms, in my mind, as the biggest in Steve Spurrier's tenure in Columbia. With a road contest at LSU two weeks later, the Gamecocks simply can not afford to fall to the Bulldogs if they have any desire to escape their century-long chain of their mediocrity.
The Ole Ball Coach will always remain a legend around these parts, but until he is able to raise the Gamecocks past their middlin' plateau (which as you know, this guy does not think will occur), he remains no better than the litany of coaches who have tried and failed to produce big results at South Carolina . . .
How important are games such as Cal-Tennessee, Georgia-Oklahoma State, Auburn-Kansas State, LSU-Virginia Tech, Alabama-Florida State, Mississippi State-West Virginia (just kidding) and later on, Florida-Florida State and Georgia-Georgia Tech, in terms of league prestige? We all know that despite the results of these top intersectional games, the debate about the power of respective conferences will always rage on every season, with the answers residing basically on where you live.
But like postseason bowl results and a host of other factors, these out-of-league encounters are a factor in how a league is perceived. And if a league is judged to be weak, or weaker than in past years, that does not help. Just ask Michigan, whose December arguments were hurt by the overall lack of strength in the Big Ten last year. Certainly things can change as the season progresses, so results in Week One or Week Two sometimes get skewed by the time November and December roll around, but in terms of league superiority, losses to teams in the Big 12, Pac-10 or ACC won't help the Southern-fried cause . . .
So what about the Western Kentucky tilt? On one hand, there's not much to say about a matchup that won't even draw a spread in the weekly odds. The Gators will have their way with Western Kentucky on both sides of the ball.
But as I wrote in the magazine this week, I truly think it's important for Florida to put up a strong, dominant show on Saturday. The two openers under Urban Meyer, against Wyoming in 2006 and Southern Miss last year, were tepid performances. Obviously, it did not affect last year's team, but that was a veteran bunch.
Certainly this team will be judged by what happens beginning in two weeks. But getting off to a solid start, with such a young group, would certainly aid the confidence factor of both the players and coaches.
As a result, I think Tim Tebow and the starters will stay in the game a little longer than the first unit would in most years. Although folks are concerned about the strength of the backups and getting them some experience running around on Florida Field, there are equal concerns at some positions with the starters. It's not like a lot of these guys have a wealth of experience to draw upon. Even if (when?) things get out of hand, I expect to see the starters in there through the middle of the third quarter. Just my hunch.
Enjoy the game and try and stay cool.
MARTY LIKES
OK, we used to do this in a different venue on this site, but we will move it to this piece, my weekly three picks against the spread, just a little item to have some fun with. We had some pretty decent success last year, putting up a 27-18 mark, a .600 winning percentage that would work in Vegas.
My theory has always been a little different. I often pick heavy favorites, the really good teams, especially at home, when they play the really bad teams. We just try and get on the right side of those weekly blowouts.
Since this piece comes out on Friday, the Thursday night games will be excluded, which is too bad, because I would have taken Rutgers minus-32 over Buffalo, which was a winner when Rutgers prevailed 38-3. Oh well, on to the initial three picks of 2007:
1) Penn State minus-38 over FIU: I know it's often a dangerous proposition to take the Nittany Lions when they're such heavy favorites, because sometimes they don't put up the points. But FIU, which went 0-12 last year, was the worst team in the country in 2006 and will contend for that dubious honor again. The Lions, who also get Buffalo and Temple in non-Big Ten play, two more candidates for the nation's worst, will feast as a prelude to Notre Dame.
2) Texas minus-39 over Arkansas State: The Longhorns traditionally pile on the points in games like this, even though Arkansas State isn't necessarily horrible. Expect the 'horns to hook in a big score in Austin.
3) Oklahoma minus-41 over North Texas: Went back and forth between this one and taking Southern Cal giving 46 to Idaho. Even though Oklahoma has some questions to answer at the skill spots, North Texas, 2-10 a year ago, will hardly provide a test. The Sooners, who also play Utah State (0-12 in '06) in two weeks, will find out more next week when they host Miami.
* Unlike most seasons, there are no weekends in the 2007 campaign where all the action features SEC teams squaring off against each other. Usually there is one weekend a year featuring six league contests, a little brotherly in-fighting down South. But it doesn't happen this season.
Every week there is at least one non-conference matchup and there are only two weeks where every SEC team is in action – this weekend and on Sept. 15. The remaining 11 weeks feature at least one team with an open date, even next week, when Arkansas takes a break after battling with Troy, only to play 11 games in a row. Not an ideal schedule setup, if you ask me.
Sometimes when a team has its open date is a huge factor in determining the course of its season. Florida has certainly benefited in recent years by being able to catch its breath before facing Georgia, a luxury it will not enjoy this season. Instead, the open date comes a week earlier, right after back-to-back matchups with Auburn and LSU, and before a trip to Lexington to face Kentucky the week prior to Georgia.
Having an open date at the exact midpoint, after six games with six more to go, would seem like the ideal way to arrange a schedule, but Florida is the only team off in Week Seven. In fact, the only other team in the league that plays less than eight consecutive games to either open or close the season is Georgia, which begins 2007 with seven straight before taking a break and finishing with five in a row.
Alabama opens with eight in a row, while Arkansas, like mentioned earlier, plays 11 straight. Auburn, which was forced by the league to move its annual affair with Alabama to Thanksgiving weekend, opens with 11 consecutive games before the open date and subsequent tussle with the Tide. Although the schedule does feature eight home games, Auburn's four tough road contests at Florida, Georgia, LSU and Arkansas plus a streak off 11 in a row puts a mighty burden on the Tigers this fall.
The rest of the league – Kentucky opens with nine in a row, LSU with eight, Ole Miss with 10, Mississippi State with nine, South Carolina with 11, Tennessee with four, then an open date and eight straight to wind up the season and Vandy, like Tennessee, with three, an open date and then nine in a row to end the campaign.
For my money, seven straight is the most to ask of a team. Physically and mentally, playing in this league is taxing and playing more than seven in a row is putting your team's chances in peril. Last year Arkansas played eight in a row after a late September open date, which might have contributed to its three-game losing skid to close the season (although the losses were to LSU and Florida and then Wisconsin in the Capital One Bowl after a month or so off, so maybe that stretches the point, but hey, it works).
Obviously scheduling is only one component of how a team will fare during a respective season. And sometimes it can be over-stated – last year's schedule was supposed to be a crippler for Florida, and while it was arduous, it proved to be tougher on paper in August than it actuality in the fall.
Next year, with the calendar breaking in such a way to allow teams to start the season in August and have 14 weeks to play 12 games, creating two open dates, it will be interesting to see how schools' utilize that option. Wonder if the Big Ten will still play 12 straight games with no open dates and then sit around and watch everyone else play for a couple of weeks. Still have to explain that one to me . . .
After last night's LSU-Mississippi State snoozer to kick off the college season on ESPN, there is only one more league game on a Thursday night, but it should be a very interesting one, when South Carolina hosts Kentucky on Oct. 4, a pair of programs tired of being on the outside looking in at the big dogs in the East.
This will be a huge game for Kentucky, which has a tremendous opportunity to make a statement considering that LSU and Florida come to Lexington the following two weeks. For South Carolina, it could be a must game for the Gamecocks, who open SEC play with road games at Georgia and LSU.
In fact, the Georgia game on Sept. 8 looms, in my mind, as the biggest in Steve Spurrier's tenure in Columbia. With a road contest at LSU two weeks later, the Gamecocks simply can not afford to fall to the Bulldogs if they have any desire to escape their century-long chain of their mediocrity.
The Ole Ball Coach will always remain a legend around these parts, but until he is able to raise the Gamecocks past their middlin' plateau (which as you know, this guy does not think will occur), he remains no better than the litany of coaches who have tried and failed to produce big results at South Carolina . . .
How important are games such as Cal-Tennessee, Georgia-Oklahoma State, Auburn-Kansas State, LSU-Virginia Tech, Alabama-Florida State, Mississippi State-West Virginia (just kidding) and later on, Florida-Florida State and Georgia-Georgia Tech, in terms of league prestige? We all know that despite the results of these top intersectional games, the debate about the power of respective conferences will always rage on every season, with the answers residing basically on where you live.
But like postseason bowl results and a host of other factors, these out-of-league encounters are a factor in how a league is perceived. And if a league is judged to be weak, or weaker than in past years, that does not help. Just ask Michigan, whose December arguments were hurt by the overall lack of strength in the Big Ten last year. Certainly things can change as the season progresses, so results in Week One or Week Two sometimes get skewed by the time November and December roll around, but in terms of league superiority, losses to teams in the Big 12, Pac-10 or ACC won't help the Southern-fried cause . . .
So what about the Western Kentucky tilt? On one hand, there's not much to say about a matchup that won't even draw a spread in the weekly odds. The Gators will have their way with Western Kentucky on both sides of the ball.
But as I wrote in the magazine this week, I truly think it's important for Florida to put up a strong, dominant show on Saturday. The two openers under Urban Meyer, against Wyoming in 2006 and Southern Miss last year, were tepid performances. Obviously, it did not affect last year's team, but that was a veteran bunch.
Certainly this team will be judged by what happens beginning in two weeks. But getting off to a solid start, with such a young group, would certainly aid the confidence factor of both the players and coaches.
As a result, I think Tim Tebow and the starters will stay in the game a little longer than the first unit would in most years. Although folks are concerned about the strength of the backups and getting them some experience running around on Florida Field, there are equal concerns at some positions with the starters. It's not like a lot of these guys have a wealth of experience to draw upon. Even if (when?) things get out of hand, I expect to see the starters in there through the middle of the third quarter. Just my hunch.
Enjoy the game and try and stay cool.
MARTY LIKES
OK, we used to do this in a different venue on this site, but we will move it to this piece, my weekly three picks against the spread, just a little item to have some fun with. We had some pretty decent success last year, putting up a 27-18 mark, a .600 winning percentage that would work in Vegas.
My theory has always been a little different. I often pick heavy favorites, the really good teams, especially at home, when they play the really bad teams. We just try and get on the right side of those weekly blowouts.
Since this piece comes out on Friday, the Thursday night games will be excluded, which is too bad, because I would have taken Rutgers minus-32 over Buffalo, which was a winner when Rutgers prevailed 38-3. Oh well, on to the initial three picks of 2007:
1) Penn State minus-38 over FIU: I know it's often a dangerous proposition to take the Nittany Lions when they're such heavy favorites, because sometimes they don't put up the points. But FIU, which went 0-12 last year, was the worst team in the country in 2006 and will contend for that dubious honor again. The Lions, who also get Buffalo and Temple in non-Big Ten play, two more candidates for the nation's worst, will feast as a prelude to Notre Dame.
2) Texas minus-39 over Arkansas State: The Longhorns traditionally pile on the points in games like this, even though Arkansas State isn't necessarily horrible. Expect the 'horns to hook in a big score in Austin.
3) Oklahoma minus-41 over North Texas: Went back and forth between this one and taking Southern Cal giving 46 to Idaho. Even though Oklahoma has some questions to answer at the skill spots, North Texas, 2-10 a year ago, will hardly provide a test. The Sooners, who also play Utah State (0-12 in '06) in two weeks, will find out more next week when they host Miami.