Over/Under: Florida's closest home game will be a 9 ½-point win.
In other words, will the Gators win every home game by double digits? Sometimes the hardest part of these over/unders is fitting the question to the format.
Beating all seven home opponents by 10 or more points is no easy task, but consider the history. Florida was undefeated at home through the first two years of the Urban Meyer era before Auburn ended the streak with a game-ending field goal last September. The Gators won their other six home games in 2007 by the combined score of 330-88, including a 59-20 beat-down of Tennessee and a 45-12 flogging of FSU.
THE ARGUMENT FOR & AGAINST: The Swamp became the Swamp in Steve Spurrier's tenure, when the Gators were perfect at home in 1990, 1991, 1992, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998 and 2000, but they were tough at Florida Field even before the golden era. Doug Dickey won 17 in a row at home from November of 1973 until the end of 1976. Charley Pell went 6-0 at home in 1981 and 1983. Ray Graves was flawless in 1964 and 1969. Of the modern-era UF coaches, only Ron Zook (two losses in 2002, two losses in 2003, one loss in 2004) failed to have a perfect home season.
Spurrier, though, is the only coach who won all of his home game by double digits. He did it five times – in 1990, 1995, 1996, 1998 and 2000.
It may appear harder with the 12-game schedule because the Gators are guaranteed seven home games, but it really isn't. They'll never play a tight game with one of the paycheck opponents that usually fill the extra slot, and they are catching Miami at the right time this year. The Hurricanes, who hammered the Gators at Florida Field in 2002 and have beaten them six times in a row dating back to 1986, haven't been this windless in a while. They will be blown right out of the Swamp.
Aside from Miami, UF faces Hawaii, Ole Miss, LSU, Kentucky, South Carolina and The Citadel at The Swamp. Hawaii and The Citadel have no chance.
Ole Miss has a better coach (Houston Nutt), better quarterback (Jevan Snead) and better talent (Ed Orgeron recruited as well as possible in Oxford, Miss.) than in the past few years, but the Rebels can't match up with Tim Tebow, Percy Harvin and company. They played the Gators close at home last year but won't do it in Gainesville.
The past two years, Kentucky shut up everyone who ripped Rich Brooks as a dumb hire. Unfortunately for Brooks, inferior talent can make a good coach look dumb, and the Wildcats probably will return to the SEC basement without quarterback Andre Woodson. Even with Woodson, they were not good enough to beat Florida, and they will be blown out this time.
That leaves two teams with a shot to keep it close in Gainesville – LSU and South Carolina.
The Tigers have a ton of talent, but their quarterbacks don't have an ounce of experience. With Ryan Perrilloux, they would be a real threat. Without him, they will need a Herculean effort on defense to beat Florida on the road and a little luck to keep it in single digits. Like a UF receiver running the wrong pattern and having a pass deflect off his helmet. And a friendly spot on a key fourth down. And maybe even a UF coordinator having an emergency appendectomy the day of the game.
South Carolina is a threat only because of Spurrier. The Gamecocks were a blocked field goal away from knocking off UF's eventual national championship team two years ago. Meyer still feels extra pressure when he faces the most successful man in UF sports history.
The problem is the Gamecocks didn't threaten anyone in the second half of 2007. They lost their last five games amid an epic defensive collapse. Although they can't possible be as inept defensively this season, they will face a much more explosive offense than the one they almost shocked at Florida Field two years ago.
THE VERDICT: I'm going with the over. It won't be as easy as in 1996, when Florida won every home game by at least 27 points, but the Gators have too much talent on offense for an underwhelming group of home opponents to hang with them for all four quarters.
over/under : dominant at home
over/under : dominant at home
USC again plays 8 games without a week off, with LSU being the 8th, then they have a week off before UT, Arky and @ UF.
“The Knave abideth.” I dare speak not for thee, but this maketh me to be of good comfort; I deem it well that he be out there, the Knave, being of good ease for we sinners.
over/under : dominant at home
LSU has a ton of talent. Our defense is gonna be suspect again this year. I am not chalking that game up as easily as the author did.
I am the law, bitches!
over/under : dominant at home
I expect the front 7 of the UF defense to be DRAMATICALLY improved.
“The Knave abideth.” I dare speak not for thee, but this maketh me to be of good comfort; I deem it well that he be out there, the Knave, being of good ease for we sinners.