Breaking down the numbers

[TTBHG]

Just how many scholarships Florida will have for its Class of 2009 in February is anyone’s guess as we enter July. Trying to guess what the number will be often ends up being a comedy of errors.

At the moment, there are 14 scholarships available to offer by coach Urban Meyer and his staff on National Signing Day Wednesday, Feb. 4. That does not include safety Dee Finley of Auburn, Ala., who did not qualify last February but should this coming January. Assume that Finley will and so the number is 14.

This is where the dreaded word attrition comes into play. Simply put, attrition occurs when a player leaves the program, whether by declaring for the National Football League draft, dropping out of school for academic or personal reasons, being removed from the team for disciplinary reasons or by graduation. No one can truly guess the number of players Florida will lose by attrition, but whatever the number is it is added to the 14 scholarships currently available.

Two Gators who could decide to leave school early and declare for the NFL Draft are middle linebacker Brandon Spikes and wide receiver Percy Harvin. Spikes had an all-SEC season as a sophomore in 2007 and a similar type of season could improve his draft status. Harvin, of course, is maybe the most talented receiver to wear a Florida uniform, and his all-around receiving and return tools may be too much for an NFL team to resist on draft day.

Then, of course, there’s quarterback Tim Tebow, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner and preseason favorite to win the award again as a junior. If Tebow comes close to his statistics from last season and his draft status soars, then he may have no choice but to declare for the NFL Draft.

Likely, though, Spikes and Harvin will be the only Gators to turn pro early, moving the scholarship number from 14 to 16. Figure on another three players leaving for one reason or another, and it’s likely that Florida will have 19 scholarships to offer next February.

What do the Gators want and need? Here’s a rundown by positions:

Quarterback (0-1): The Gators did not have one in their Class of 2008, and as of now, there are no non-committed quarterbacks who interest the staff enough to take without seeing them in person. There will be a big turnout at Friday Night Lights with Tate Forcier, Morgan Newton, Jordan Reed, Denard Robinson and Eugene Smith.

Running back (1): After Jeff Demps’ impressive performance at the U.S. Olympic Track Trials in Eugene, Ore., his future as a football player may be in jeopardy. The Gators need a top running back in this class after losing one of their 2007 signees in Bo Williams and with Demps a possibility for professional track in Europe. Prospects like Jaamal Berry and Lonnie Pryor are key components to the Gator class right now. Total so far: 1-2 scholarships.

Wide receiver (3): The Gators most likely will lose their top three receiving targets after 2008, so receivers will be huge for the 2009 class. Nu’Keese Richardson of Pahokee already has pledged to be a Gator, and getting two more should not be that difficult as the position is deep and very talented. In alphabetical order, there is interest in Stedman Bailey, Jheranie Boyd, Marlon Brown, Chad Bumphis, Andre DeBose, Alshon Jeffrey, Kendall Kelly, Marcus McNeal, Josh Robinson, Ricco Sanders and Rontavious Wooten. Total so far: 4-5 scholarships.

Tight end (1-2): The Gators will lose two tight ends to graduation, leaving only Aaron Hernandez on scholarship. Getting one tight end is a must, two would be ideal. The position was well represented at the Gators summer camp and the coaching staff got a great look at a number of very good ones: Orson Charles, Arthur Fontaine, Ra’Shede Hageman, Gabe Holmes, Darion Howard and Desmond Parks. Total so far: 5-7 scholarships.

Offensive line (3-4): Three starters graduate after the 2008 season, including both tackles.
Getting two tackles in this class is a necessity and it looks like it should happen. The Gators have commitments from Jon Halapio and Nick Alajajian, two solid if not spectacular prospects. A third commitment is likely coming Monday from massive lineman Jonotthan Harrison. The list for the fourth spot includes Chris Freeman, Kyle Koehne, Morgan Moses, Xavier Nixon and Peter White. Total so far: 8-11 scholarships.

Defensive tackle (1-2): The Gators struck gold with Gary Brown of West Gadsden High School when he committed early. There really are just two other prospects high on the board, and Antwan Lowery and Curtis Porter would be too difficult to pass up. Porter is a two-way lineman who could end up on offense. Total so far: 9-13 scholarships.

Defensive end (1-2): This was a position of great depth on the board early in the process and that depth seems to have dwindled somewhat early in the process. Jermaine Cunningham is the only upperclassman on the roster and I think the numbers at this position are more dependent on what happens at defensive tackle. A few big names the Gators are recruiting are Dyron Dye, Ryne Giddins and Nick Kasa. Total so far: 10-15 scholarships.

Linebacker (1-2): There are no senior linebackers on the roster although the Gators may lose Brandon Spikes if he gets another great year under his belt. Getting a big linebacker is a must, but honestly the linebacker board has dwindled significantly since the start of the recruiting process. The three names we hear most prominently are Jon Bostic, Jelani Jenkins and Jarvis Jones. Total so far: 11-17 scholarships.

Safety (1-2): What looked to be a very deep position only months ago is now not so deep. Getting two would be nice, but Finley should return to the fold in January. There are quite a few good ones looking at the Gators: Corey Addison, Ray Ray Armstrong, Jawanza Starling and Frankie Telfort. Total so far: 12-19 scholarships.

Cornerback (1-2): Under Armour All-American Greg Reid, has committed. The position is a deep one already in Gainesville, and it is conceivable the Gators will not sign another cornerback. There are some big-time recruits looking this way like Michael Carter, Dre Kirkpatrick, Jordan Love, Gabe Lynn, Terry Shankle, Brandon Smith and Kayvon Webster. Total so far: 13-21 scholarships.

Athlete (1): A very talented ball carrier, Mike Gillislee could be a receiver or a running back in the Florida offense. Total so far: 14-22 scholarships.

So how do the numbers work? We know 14 for sure: one running back, three wide receivers, one tight end, three offensive linemen, one defensive tackle, one defensive end, one linebacker, one safety, one cornerback and one athlete.

That leaves five other spots to fill and eight positions with a need: quarterback, tight end, offensive line, defensive tackle, defensive end, linebacker, safety and cornerback.

Whoever said this recruiting stuff was easy?