It's amusing how quickly in the wake of a loss, or two, folks go into spin mode. It's a natural reaction once dreams of an undefeated season get dashed.
What we hear a lot in the aftermath of defeat is loads of talk about "destiny" and "fate." How certain teams control their own "destiny," in terms of trying to win a conference title, or no longer have their own "fate" in their hands.
This was one of the lead topics of conversation following Florida's home loss to Auburn last month, and then the subsequent tough road setback at LSU a week later (hard to believe Florida hasn't experienced a football victory in 27 days).
By now we're all familiar with Florida's plight to win the SEC East and get back to Atlanta – knock off Kentucky, Georgia, Vanderbilt and South Carolina in succession, and then hope Tennessee gets beaten in one of the Vols' final five league games. If that happens, Florida's in.
Of course, at the halfway juncture of the league schedule, more than half the league teams can claim similar scenarios. In fact, five SEC teams still control their own "destiny" in the league, with two others needing just one bit of help to regain a hold on their "fate." That's a lot of teams who are still dreaming of an SEC title in mid-October, perhaps a microcosm of this crazy, unpredictable college football season.
And before we get deeper into the SEC picture, allow me to digress for a moment. I can understand because there is so much time in between games each Saturday to talk endlessly about college football, but this obsession with the BCS and the national title picture is out of control. It seems like folks have lost their way around here a little bit – when home games against Tennessee and Auburn aren't met with unbridled fervor (as opposed to bridled fervor), when there is so much angst about things happening all over the country, then to me, fans have lost track about what really matters.
This is not being written because Florida has lost two games. It's because of the frustration over the endless harangue about the national picture week after week after week after week. And instead of letting things just play out, the topic of frustration changes every seven days.
First it was the prospect of multiple undefeated teams back in mid-September, when it looked like USC, LSU and Oklahoma might be on a no-loss collision course. Then it was who was going to be left standing to face LSU. Now it's about the lack of merit of No. 1 Ohio State, the skeptical take on South Florida, etc., etc. Patience, my friends, it will all work itself out in the next seven weeks. And if it doesn't you have more grist for the mill to shout from the mountaintop about the thirst for a playoff.
Anyway, back to the SEC. In the West, three teams are all in control of their situation – LSU, Auburn and even Alabama. All have just one conference loss, with LSU (Kentucky) and Alabama (Georgia) losing to East teams and Auburn falling to lowly Mississippi State, which doesn't matter for tiebreaker purposes. All three still have to play each other, starting with Auburn venturing to LSU this weekend.
In terms of scheduling, there is little edge here. All have four league games left, two at home and two on the road. One would think LSU would be a favorite, facing Auburn at home, but seeing how Tommy Tuberville's Tigers have already beaten Florida and Arkansas on the road, this is no gimmee.
LSU faces Auburn and then Alabama, in Tuscaloosa, back-to-back, but has an open date in between. The Tigers then host Louisiana Tech, go to Ole Miss and host Arkansas on the Friday of Thanksgiving weekend. After traveling to LSU this weekend, Auburn hosts Ole Miss and Tennessee Tech (nice!), before heading to Athens to take on Georgia. The Tigers then get an open date after 11 straight games before hosting Alabama.
Meanwhile The Tide, after hosting Tennessee on Saturday, get an open date before finishing with LSU at home, Mississippi State on the road, Louisiana-Monroe at home and Auburn on the road. There seems to be little advantage schedule-wise for any of the three West contenders.
In the East, it's a little more convoluted. Both Tennessee and South Carolina, with one league loss, control their own deal. Kentucky, with one SEC defeat, and Florida with two, have to win out and hope that somebody knocks off South Carolina (in Kentucky's case) or Tennessee (for Florida).
We know Florida's schedule – at Kentucky, followed by Georgia in Jacksonville, Vandy at home and South Carolina on the road before home games with FAU and FSU finish out the deal. For South Carolina, it's Vandy at home, followed by Tennessee and Arkansas on the road before winding up with Florida (the Gamecocks' 11th straight game without a break), an open date and then Clemson in Columbia.
Tennessee is the only team left with five league games remaining. The Vols go to Alabama before opening up a four-game homestand against South Carolina, Louisiana-Lafayette, Arkansas and Vanderbilt before ending the season at Kentucky. The Wildcats finish their tough trifecta by hosting Florida this weekend and then host Mississippi State before getting a bye week, finishing with Vandy and Georgia on the road and Tennessee in Lexington. Although Georgia has two league losses like UF, the Dawgs actually lost two games against East teams (South Carolina and Tennessee), making their road back to the top virtually impossible.
What we're left with is six riveting weeks of football leading up to the SEC Championship Game on Dec. 1. Every Saturday the league races will take different twists and it should be a wild ride. Let's take a look at the highlight league games each week:
Oct. 20
Florida at Kentucky
Auburn at LSU
Tennessee at Alabama
Oct. 27
Florida vs. Georgia
South Carolina at Tennessee
Nov. 3
LSU at Alabama
Nov. 10
Florida at South Carolina
Auburn at Georgia
Nov. 17
Kentucky at Georgia
Nov. 24
Alabama at Auburn
Arkansas at LSU (Nov. 23)
Tennessee at Kentucky
We are coming off a week where road teams went 5-1 (4-1 in SEC play, with South Carolina knocking off North Carolina in Chapel Hill), and once again, road teams have a winning record (12-11) in league action. Four road teams were favorites (Tennessee over Mississippi State, Alabama over Ole Miss, Georgia over Vanderbilt, plus South Carolina), while one road underdog came through (Auburn over Arkansas) and one road team fell (LSU at Kentucky).
More than likely, the road will decide the "destiny" and "fate" of all concerned in the SEC. Just this week – can Tennessee stay in the race and knock off Bama in Tuscaloosa? Can Auburn continue its uncanny road success against LSU? Can Florida rise up and smite red-hot Kentucky in Lexington? We'll leave Vanderbilt – at South Carolina – out of the picture, and in terms of Ole Miss against Arkansas in Oxford, wow, no one really cares.
I like the road teams to go two for three in the prime league games tomorrow. The more the week goes on, the more I believe Tennessee will beat Alabama. Although I'm starting to warm to Auburn's prospects, I just don't think the Tigers will score enough to upend LSU. And I've predicted Florida to win by a field goal, so why back down now?
It's been perhaps the most wide open and crazy race in the SEC in years. It will provide great thrills the next six weeks. So sit back and enjoy, and quit gashing your teeth about Ohio State, South Florida, Boston College, Kansas, etc. One way or the other, it will all work itself out by Dec. 2.
MARTY LIKES
Not my pitiful season record, that's for sure. The success we've had the past two years is in the rear view mirror, at least I think it was still there. Another 1-2 week dropped the ledger to 8-13 on the year. There's still time to pull it out of the fire, but it better happen soon.
Last week got off to a strong start when Oregon pounded Washington State, but went downhill quick when Cal and Cincinnati not only didn't cover, they lost outright. Have had too many of those favorites come up lame. Oh well, optimism reigns supreme as we try to head back to respectability. On to this week's picks:
1) Texas minus 24.5 at Baylor: We've misfired on the Longhorns all year, taking 'em when they've dived (Arkansas State and Kansas State) and passing when they've soared (Rice and Iowa State). Well we're back, one last time, and even though it's in Waco, Baylor is awful, having lost three in a row by a combined 135-43.
2) Oklahoma minus 28.5 at Iowa State: Notice the theme here, taking the Big 12 big boys against the awful teams. Iowa State is as bad as it gets, and even though the game is in Ames, Texas won there 56-3 last week. Like the Sooners to get well in their second-to-last road game.
3) Troy minus 17.5 over North Texas: Back to my Troy guys, who we've had here a number of times. The Sun Belt Conference is 15-35 overall and the bottom four of North Texas, Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana-Lafayette and FIU are a combined 3-22. Troy is the only SBC team with a winning record. And the Trojans are coming off an open week. And it's Homecoming. It's just too much!
Also under consideration was Ohio State minus 17.5 over Michigan State and Michigan minus 2.5 at the Fightin' ("We'll take the penalty!") Zookers.