Franz's basketball confidential

[IHateUGAlyDawgs]

Florida's win on the road at Georgia Wednesday night was a huge step in the maturity process for the Gators. Not only was this a win the Gators had to have, it was on the road at one of the toughest places for a visitor to win in all of the Southeastern Conference. Georgia rarely loses at home but the Gators led bell to bell and ensured that they will finish at least .500 in the SEC.

The Gators (21-7, 8-5 SEC East) got another break this week, both literally and figuratively. When Kentucky's Patrick Patterson went down for the rest of the season with a stress fracture in his ankle, it certainly boosts Florida's chances of getting that ninth win that will take all the doubt out of making the NCAA Tournament for the tenth straight year.

Kentucky (16-10, 10-3 SEC East) is a game behind Tennessee in the East standings but without Patterson, the Mildcats could go 0-3 down the stretch. Vanderbilt (24-4, 9-4 SEC East) has a couple of very losable games with Arkansas on the road and a homer against Mississippi State. If Vandy stumbles twice, that final game at Alabama could be a killer.

You have to figure that with Patterson out, Florida should win at Rupp in the final game of the regular season. If the Gators could get a split out of today's game with Mississippi State or next Wednesday's game with Tennessee (both at the O-Dome), it is possible the Gators could find themselves in a three-way tie for second at 10-6 in the league. If Florida does the unthinkable and sweeps the last three games, I believe 11-5 will be good enough for second in the East, which would mean Thursday off at the SEC Tournament.

It might be safe to say that this has been the best coaching job ever at Florida for Billy Donovan and it's difficult to imagine anyone but Billy winning SEC Coach of the Year. But, I thought the same thing last year when he took the Gators to their second straight NCAA title. Isn't it amazing that Billy Donovan has NEVER won SEC Coach of the Year.

It's also hard to imagine that Florida has never had an SEC Player of the Year in Donovan's 12 years. Last year they gave it to Derrick Byars of Vanderbilt. What a crock that was. Byars was a nice player but he couldn't sniff the jock of Al Horford, who should have won it hands down.

SHIPMAN SHOWS UP BIG: Monsignor Pace will be going for its second straight state championship and fourth in the past ten years today, led by University of Florida signee Ray Shipman. All season long Shipman has been the top gun for Pace but since the state playoffs began, he has elevated his game to a whole new level, particularly on the defensive end where he is a game-changer. Shipman is a disruptive force that doesn't have to have his hands on the ball in the offensive flow to get points. He is a devastating finisher on the fast break and he probably picks up 10-14 points per game off his defense and garbage.

He has a weighted 4.6 GPA and is the model citizen on and off the court. I've watched him play about 12-15 times and I would say think Justin Hamilton before the knee injuries. Before the knees took away his explosiveness, Hamilton was a high flyer that could dominate a game around the rim and with his defense. Hamilton never lost the ability to lock down on the perimeter and that's something that Shipman will bring to the Gators.

CHANEY UPDATE: For the third straight game, Florida signee Allan Chaney came up big for the New London Whalers. In Friday night's showdown with Norwich Free Academy, Chaney scored 32 points to lead the Whalers to a 72-66 win and the Eastern Connecticut Conference championship. Chaney dominated on both ends of the court to lead the number four state-ranked Whalers to the win over number five NFA. The win advances New London (21-1) to the 16-team state tournament.

In his last three games, Chaney has scored 55, 37 and now 32 points.

ERVING WALKER UPDATE: Erving Walker scored 21 of his 27 points in the second half Thursday night to lead Christ the King to an 81-70 win over St. Raymond's in the quarterfinals of the Catholic High School tournament in New York City. With the win, Christ the King advances to the semi-finals next Wednesday night against Bishop Loughlin.

Walker, a 5-8 point guard who has signed with the Gators, made his biggest impact on the defensive end where he finished with seven steals.

AROUND THE SEC:

ALABAMA (15-13, 4-9 SEC West): The buzzards are circling Coleman Coliseum where the discontent with Mark Gottfried has reached record levels. This was a team that was predicted by many to win the SEC West this year. The Tide is 4-4 in the division and 0-5 against the SEC East. Two wins in the last three games will ensure a winning record for the season but even that is no guarantee that Gottfried will have a job next season. In fairness to Gottfried, the injuries to Ronald Steele have been killer. A healthy Steele and Alabama is a totally different team this year.

Last three games: The last three games are not promising for Gottfried. There are road trips to Ole Miss and LSU before the regular season finale at home against Vanderbilt. Alabama will be the underdog in all three games. Alabama is in a four-way tie for last place in the West but the Tide has a 4-4 record within the division. Right now Alabama looks like it has the best chance to finish third in the West.

Magic numbers: If Alabama somehow wins its final three games, pencil the Tide in for the Nobody's Interested Tournament (NIT). It would take winning the last three and winning three games in the SEC Tournament to make the NCAA.

If Gottfried goes: The name you'll hear is Mike Davis, a Bammer alum, formerly the coach at Indiana and now in his second year at UAB. Get Davis and Alabama has a chance to get DeMarcus Cousins (6-10, 260, Mobile, AL LeFlore), who is perhaps the best prospect produced in the state in years.

ARKANSAS (18-9, 7-6 SEC West): Just when it looked like the Razorbacks were going to challenge Mississippi State for the West championship, they've gone in the tank. They've gone 1-4 since a win over Ole Miss on February 9. The loss to Alabama Wednesday night was a giant step backward --- 3-21 shooting from the three-point line and 16 turnovers. The Razorbacks got to 6-2 in the league with good shooting and protecting the basketball. When they don't turn it over and hit shots, Arkansas plays like a Final Four team. When they play sloppy, anyone can beat them. Guards Patrick Beverly and Stefan Welsh have gone 6-30 from the field in the last two games, both of them losses. In the Arkansas loss at Lexington last week, Coach John Pelphrey was given a standing ovation from the Kentucky crowd while Kentucky coach Billy Gillispie received only mild applause.

Last three games: There is a homer with Vandy Saturday, a road trip to Ole Miss and a homer against Auburn in the season finale. Arkansas should be favored to win at Ole Miss and at home with Auburn.

Magic numbers: One win in the last three ensures an 8-8 SEC record and second place in the West. Two wins in the last three would get Arkansas to 20 wins in the regular season and a 9-7 SEC record. While 9-7 won't ensure an NCAA bid, that's what Arkansas needs to get in the big dance. At 8-8, Arkansas would probably have to win two games, possibly three in the SEC Tournament to avoid the NIT.

AUBURN (14-12, 4-9 SEC West): Auburn was hoping to get Korvotney Barber back from a broken hand suffered at the end of December but the doctors have ruled him out the rest of the season. Barber was Auburn's best presence in the paint and without him there hasn't been much in the way of inside scoring. Where his absence has hurt worst is on the defensive end. Auburn ranks dead last in field goal percentage defense in the SEC. Opponents are hitting 46.6 percent. One win in the last three games will ensure the Tigers a winning record.

Last three games: Auburn finishes up the regular season with homers against South Carolina and Georgia and a roadie at Arkansas. The Tigers should be favored to win both the home games. If Auburn gets to six SEC wins, the Tigers will likely finish third in the West which would be a tremendous accomplishment for Coach Jeff Lebo.

Magic numbers: Two wins in the last three plus a win in the tournament might get the Tigers to the NIT. The only way Auburn makes it to the NCAA is to win the SEC Tournament.

GEORGIA (12-14, 3-10 SEC East): This is another place where the buzzards are circling. While no one in the Georgia administration will come right out and say it, Dennis Felton looks like dead man walking here. One good reason why Felton will probably get the axe is the lack of warm bodies in the seats of Stegman Coliseum. When the Gators played in Athens Wednesday night, the announced crowd was something like 8,800. The actual attendance was something like 6,000 and perhaps as many as 2,000 of those were Gator fans. Georgia ranks last or close to it in nearly every offensive category so there is not an exciting product for fans to fill the arena to see. One reason the Poodles are once again at the bottom of the standings in the SEC is recruiting. Atlanta is 40 miles away and some of the best high school basketball talent in the country is produced there yet Georgia has not taken advantage. There are at least 10 top tier Division I players in the Atlanta metro area for the class of 2008 but Georgia landed only one, Howard Thompkins (6-9, 225, Atlanta, GA Wesleyan). McDonald's All-Americans Al-Farouq Aminu (6-8, 210, Norcross, GA) and Chris Singleton (6-8, 217, Dunwoody, GA) are headed to Wake Forest and Florida State respectively. When you're losing McDonald's All-Americans to FSU, you have a serious recruiting problem. The best player in the country for 2009 is Derrick Favors (6-9, 220, Atlanta, GA South Atlanta) and his top schools are Clemson, Florida, Arkansas and Memphis.

Last three games: The Poodles have roadies at LSU and Auburn and they finish up the regular season with a homer against Ole Miss. Actually all three games are winnable, but considering the Poodles haven't won an SEC road game all year, you have to figure LSU and Auburn are losses. I like Georgia's chances against Ole Miss at home.

Magic numbers: The magic number is four --- three regular season games and one SEC Tournament game --- and then the season is over.

If Felton goes: The hot ticket item, it would seem, is Anthony Grant at VCU, seen as a recruiter capable of keeping the local talent at home. Another name I think you'll hear is Southern Illinois coach Chris Lowery. I know this might seem crazy, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see the Poodles make a serious bid to entice Tubby Smith to leave Minnesota for a return to the SEC. Tubby won big at Georgia in his two years in Athens and the folks love him there.

KENTUCKY (16-10, 10-3 SEC East): Just when the Mildcats looked like they were going to play their way into the NCAA Tournament, Patrick Patterson goes down with a stress fracture in his ankle and probably ends Kentucky's chances of making the NCAA Tournament for the 17th straight year. Patterson was averaging 16.4 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. Without him in the middle, Coach Billy Gillispie will have to rely on Perry Stevenson (5.2 points, 4.3 rebounds) and Jared Carter (0.9 points, 0.7 rebounds per game) to pick up the slack. Carter is 7-2 and carrying on a longstanding Kentucky tradition of 7-0 stiffs. Neither Stevenson or Carter offer decent low post offense and neither defends well.

Last three games: The Mildcats are at Tennessee and at South Carolina before they finish up at home with Florida. Without Patterson, they will be heavy underdogs against both Tennessee and Florida and the South Carolina game suddenly becomes an adventure.

Magic numbers: Kentucky was looking like a lock to finish second in the SEC East before the news about Patterson but even without him, the Mildcats have a legitimate shot at getting the first day off in the SEC Tournament. If Kentucky could manage two wins in the last three games, the Mildcats would finish second. To get to the NCAA Tournament, Kentucky needs at least two more wins in the regular season and probably two wins in the SEC Tournament. When you lose to Gardner-Webb and San Diego at home, it's really tough to get NCAA sympathy with anything less than 20 wins.

The Gillispie rumor mill: Kentucky fans probably didn't help the situation with Gillispie last Saturday when they gave John Pelphrey a thunderous ovation as the Arkansas coach and then gave Gillispie mild -- and that's probably a stretch --- applause when he was announced. It is a fact that T. Boone Pickens despises Sean Sutton, the coach at his alma-mammy Okie State. It is also a fact that T. Boone would send a Brinks truck to Lexington to get Gillispie to bolt. Considering the impasse between the Kentucky admin, which won't budge on the inclusion of a morals clause in the contract for Gillispie, and Gillispie, who won't sign a contract that has a morals clause in it, there is probably a more than decent chance that Kentucky will be looking for a new coach in April.

If Gillispie goes: The only two names I expect you will hear are Pelphrey and UMass coach Travis Ford. I heard someone say last week that Kentucky would go after John Calipari at Memphis but after the NCAA mess he left at UMass a few years back, I can't see that Kentucky would take that kind of chance. But, then again, I never thought Indiana would be dumb enough to hire Kelvin Sampson, so what do I know?

LSU (11-16, 4-9 SEC West): Since the only hope of making the post season is to win the SEC Tournament --- and that's not going to happen --- the eyes of Tiger fans are on the search for who will replace John Brady. So far the leg work for the search has been handled by former Florida director of basketball operations Eddie Nunez and that could be a sign that the Tigers are going to make Anthony Grant their top priority. Grant makes $400,000 at VCU and LSU is said to be willing to go as high as $1.5 million to get the right coach. Other names that you're going to hear are Washington State coach Tony Bennett (I think he's going to get the Indiana job), Pitt coach Jamie Dixon (he's ready to move on, so I hear), Southern Illinois coach Chris Lowery (making $600,000 so he's very affordable) and Baylor's Scott Drew (if he can win at Baylor he could be lights out at LSU). Watch these coaches and what their teams do in the NCAA Tournament. I expect LSU will move quickly to name a coach during March, if at all possible, so once some of these teams get eliminated from the NCAA, watch for LSU to make a bid to grab its man ASAP.

Last three games: There are home games with Georgia and Alabama and a season-ending roadie at Mississippi State. The games with Georgia and Alabama are quite winnable.

Magic numbers: The Tigers are playing for pride the rest of the way but they could be a big spoiler in the SEC Tournament. I don't think they could win two games in the tournament but I do think they could send someone packing early the first day. Two wins in the last three games could get LSU shockingly to third place in the West, which would be quite an accomplishment all things considered.

MISSISSIPPI STATE (19-8, 10-3 SEC West): The big question in Starkville is will JaMont Gordon stick around for his senior year? Most draft trackers have him as a second rounder even though he's had a phenomenal year, averaging 17.6 points, 6.2 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game. At 6-4, 230 Gordon is built more like a middle linebacker than a point guard. He's so strong that once he gets in the paint it seems the ball is either going in the basket or else he's going to get fouled. Going into the season there were questions about his outside shooting but that's an area he's improved. If he has a strong SEC Tournament and a good run in the NCAA Tournament, he could enhance his draft stock and that could be what it takes for him to decide to bolt early. In most years, Gordon's numbers would make him a shoo-in for Player of the Year in the SEC but he's going to have to battle it out with Vandy's Shan Foster and Tennessee's Tyler Smith.

Last three games: The Bulldogs are at Florida and at Vandy before finishing out the season at home against LSU. Mississippi State will be favored to win all three games but the two road games could prove extremely difficult.

Magic numbers: Any combination of one Mississippi State win and one Arkansas loss clinches the SEC West for the Bulldogs, who also need one more win to get to 20 for the season. Mississippi State is a game behind Tennessee in the race for SEC champ (best regular season wins the SEC not the winner of the tournament) so the Bulldogs would need to win three games and hope Tennessee goes 2-1 in its last three for a tie.

OLE MISS (18-9, 4-9 SEC West): Since starting the season 13-0, the Rebels are 6-9 and they're 3-8 since they beat Florida in Oxford back in January. In January they looked like a lock for the NCAA Tournament but now the only way they get in is to get to the SEC Tournament championship game. Critical turnovers and poor defense have been the undoing for Andy Kennedy and the Rebels. They are tenth in the league in scoring defense. They are also tenth in the league in free throw shooting (63.7 percent). Ole Miss hasn't won a game on the road in SEC play and the Rebels are 2-7 against the SEC West.

Last three games: The next two are at home against Alabama and Arkansas and then there is a trip to Georgia to end the season. Because the Rebels are 12-2 at home, they'll be favored to get at least a split of the two home games. As bad as Georgia is, the Poodles play well at home and Ole Miss stinks on the road, so that one figures to be a loss.

Magic Numbers: The main goal should be avoiding the SEC West cellar. The Rebels are a lock for the NIT.

SOUTH CAROLINA (12-15, 4-8 SEC East): It would take a miracle of Moses proportions for the Gamecocks to finish with a winning record. Since they're playing out the string, most South Carolina fans are focusing on who will replace the retiring Dave Odom. Dick Vitale suggested that South Carolina hire Bobby Knight earlier in the week but that's not going to happen. Greg Marshall, formerly of Winthrop but now at Wichita State, would have been the ideal candidate but Wichita State has tanked this year. If you ask the SC fans, they'd love Anthony Grant and who wouldn't? Anthony flies higher on better radars than South Carolina, however. The names to watch for here are Sean Miller, the coach at 11th ranked Xavier and former UNC-Wilmington coach Brad Brownell, who has two 20-win seasons in two years at Wright State.

Last three games: There is a home game with Kentucky sandwiched between roadsters at Auburn and Tennessee. South Carolina actually has a shot at two wins. Auburn is beatable and Kentucky without Patrick Patterson is a chance to send Dave Odom off into retirement with a win.

Magic numbers: The only magic numbers are those of Devan Downey, who leads the conference in steals (3.19 per game) and is second to Shan Foster in scoring (19.3 per game; Foster is averaging 19.[img]{SMILIES_PATH}/icon_cool.gif[/img]. If he were playing on a team contending for a division championship, Downey would be a candidate for SEC Player of the Year.

TENNESSEE (25-3, 11-2 SEC East): The win over then unbeaten Memphis proved one thing for certain --- the Vols can win when Chris Lofton has a bad game but they have no prayer of winning of Tyler Smith is a no show. Smith may have cemented the SEC Player of the Year with his performance against Memphis. Another thing that was totally apparent in the Memphis game was that Bruce Pearl is a superior coach to John Calipari. Lofton had a big scoring game against Vandy Tuesday night but late in the game he totally disappeared. It seemed rather odd that the Vols were driving to the hoop and hoping to convert three-point plays the old fashioned way rather than depend on Lofton to launch and make threes to bring them back against the Commodores. Everybody figured Lofton was a lock for SEC Player of the Year when the season began. If he makes first team All-SEC it's a lifetime achievement award, not deserved. I think there is a better case for putting him second team All-SEC.

Last three games: The Vols host Kentucky, travel to Florida and then finish out at home against South Carolina. I would be shocked if they don't beat Kentucky by at least 30 points Saturday. The Florida game could get dicey. South Carolina? See the note on Kentucky.

Magic numbers: A win over Kentucky will clinch at least a tie for the SEC East. Two wins and the Vols clinch the SEC championship. If Tennessee finishes with 27 regular season wins and then gets one or two more in the SEC Tournament, you can figure the worst the Vols will get in the NCAA Tournament is a two seed. Considering Florida from the SEC has won the last two NCAA championships, the Vols will probably be a one seed if they're at 29 or more wins after the SEC Tournament.

VANDERBILT (24-4, 9-4 SEC East): Kevin Stallings keeps hearing his name associated with the Indiana vacancy. While I doubt the Hoosiers would hire a Purdue grad, I can see where Stallings might choose to move on from Vandy after this season. He loses three senior starters (Shan Foster, Alex Gordon and Ross Neltner) and his senior sixth man (Alan Metcalfe). If A.J. Ogilvy chooses to bolt for the NBA, then it might be a very good time for Stallings to move on. Foster's 32-point performance against Tennessee Tuesday night might have sealed the votes he needs for SEC Player of the Year.

Last three games: There is a home game with Mississippi State sandwiched between roadies at Arkansas and Alabama. Because Arkansas needs a win so desperately to break out of a two-game funk and to ensure it's chances of getting in the NCAA Tournament, today's game is very losable for Vandy. Mississippi State is a horrendous matchup problem for the Commodores, too.

Magic numbers: Vandy needs to win two games to have a chance to sit out Thursday at the SEC Tournament. The Commodores also need two wins to ensure a top four seed in the NCAA Tournament. If they lose two out of the last three, then they might have to win three games in the SEC Tournament to have a shot at a top four seeding

[annarborgator]

I guess the SEC award voters (anybody know if that's the coaches or writers?) don't think this "football school" deserves awards, after last year's BS. I was really annoyed about both of those--we should have had POY and COY, hands down, IMO.