bowl projection

[radbag]

Please indulge my flight of fancy here because I'm going to break a rule I've held for a long time: absolutely, positively no bowl projections until the end of the regular season.

It is a silly exercise with two weeks left because too many pairings depend on the result of games yet to be played. Particularly in a year when the only safe assumption has been to expect the unexpected, predicting the winner of every important game this weekend is virtually impossible.

But what the heck? I have gotten 10 times as many questions in the last few days about Florida's bowl destination as anything else, particularly with Tim Tebow having emerged as the overwhelming Heisman Trophy favorite. Quick aside: I've already booked a flight to New York for the ceremony. The only ways he won't win are if Florida loses to FSU or if Missouri's Chase Daniel/Kansas' Todd Reesing plays incredibly well this Saturday and follows up with a spectacular performance in the Big 12 Championship Game. Tebow has the numbers, the flair and the rare ability to run over and throw over opposing defensive backs with equal proficiency.

The most frequently asked bowl questions: Is it possible the Capital One Bowl will set up a juicy, uncomfortable match-up with Illinois and former coach Ron Zook in Orlando? Can Florida still make the BCS? Is it really conceivable the Gators, who open 2008 with a home game against Hawaii, will play the Rainbows in a bowl game, too?

The answers are yes, yes and yes, but after guessing the outcome of every relevant game left in the next two weeks (if you saw my record in the paper's Fearless Forecast contest this year, you'd know why I used the word "guess."), I've figured out exactly what will happen. You don't need to bother going anywhere else.

Florida will not play Illinois in a bowl game. Florida will play in a BCS game. The opponent won't be Hawaii.

Here's how: UF will beat FSU,* Kentucky will beat Tennessee, Georgia will beat Georgia Tech and LSU will beat Arkansas this weekend. The Tigers will squeak by the Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game, rallying from a 10-point deficit in the final two minutes when Early Doucet picks up a Trindon Holliday fumble and scores, the Tigers recover an onside kick and Charles Scott runs for a 30-yard touchdown on the last play when coach Les Miles, figuring his luck has run out, wants to put the ball in the middle and play for the tying field goal.

Missouri will thump Kansas but lose to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game. USC will sweep Arizona State and UCLA while Oregon loses to Oregon State (coach Mike Bellotti will reveal that quarterback Brady Leaf has played his entire career with a torn ACL and no one noticed), giving the Trojans a Rose Bowl berth as Pac-10 champion. Virginia Tech will beat Virginia and edge Boston College 7-6 in the ACC Championship Game when a wide-open receiver drops a 60-yard heave from Matt Ryan on the final play (the color analyst will insist Ryan deserves the Heisman anyway for throwing the ball that far despite his four interceptions). Hawaii will beat Boise State and Washington behind a healthy Colt Brennan, moving high enough in the BCS rankings to earn an automatic berth. West Virginia will beat up Connecticut and Pittsburgh, clinching the Big East.

LSU will play West Virginia in the most-mistake prone national championship game in history, with the Mountaineers edging Ohio State by .001 in the final BCS standings. Zook apologists will point out that Zook cost the Buckeyes two consecutive national titles, recruiting the players at Florida who beat them in 2006 and upsetting them himself in 2007. Realists will roll their eyes but admit he did a nice job in 2007.

Virginia Tech (Orange Bowl), USC (Rose Bowl), Ohio State (Rose Bowl) and Oklahoma (Fiesta Bowl) will be locked into BCS spots because of conference tie-ins. The Sugar Bowl, which will lose LSU to the national championship game, will get first pick among the at-large teams and choose Texas.

That's right, Texas, the fourth best team in the Big 12. The BCS selection process is not about fairness. It's about marquee value and ticket sales. The Longhorns, who will be 10-2 and on a six-game winning streak, have not been to the Sugar Bowl since the 1996 season. Their fans travel better than Gator fans when the bowl game is meaningless (witness the sea of empty seats when UF played Miami in the 2002 Sugar Bowl). Trying to sell an event in the same city as the national championship game six days later, the Sugar Bowl will opt for the team that brings the most fans.

The Orange Bowl, which gets the next pick because it is ahead of the Fiesta Bowl in this year's BCS rotation, will take Florida over Georgia in a close vote. The Gators have more alumni in south Florida than any other school, and again, the BCS is not about fairness. Georgia will scream that it beat UF and finished with a better SEC record than UF, but bowls shy away from teams on a downer. With the Bulldogs having lost a heart-breaker to LSU in the SEC Championship Game, their fans won't be thrilled to travel to Miami even though their last appearance in the Orange Bowl was 1960.

With the next pick, the Fiesta Bowl will take Illinois, setting up a battle of former UF defensive coordinators – Zook from 1991-93 and Bob Stoops from 1996-98. Zook apologists will say that he would have been in Arizona a year earlier for the national championship game if UF had not fired him unfairly. Realists will point out that if Zook were still in Gainesville, Alabama would have played in a BCS bowl this year behind true sophomore quarterback Tim Tebow and resurgent coach Mike Shula.

The Sugar Bowl, last in the BCS pecking order, will be left with Hawaii to face Texas.

A Florida-Virginia Tech Orange Bowl would be good for all parties. The Orange Bowl would get a match-up of two top-10 teams (The Hokies likely would be sixth; the Gators ninth), one in-state and the other with rabid fans. It would be a test of a top-ranked defense (Virginia Tech) vs. a top-ranked offense and the Heisman winner. Plus, Florida's inexperienced secondary would get a breather against one of the worst passing attacks in America.

For what it's worth, I picked the outcome of the regular-season games before figuring out the BCS pairings, so this thing was not rigged. I love these match-ups. Hope they actually happen.

* Please, no posts about how it is dangerous to look past Florida State. I'm not part of the team. I can look past the Seminoles all I want and it won't affect the result on Saturday. The Gators are playing at home, have more talent than the Seminoles and have a more cohesive coaching staff than the 'Noles. Sure, an upset is possible, but there really is not much to say about this game.

[MinGator]

* Please, no posts about how it is dangerous to look past Florida State. I'm not part of the team. I can look past the Seminoles all I want and it won't affect the result on Saturday. The Gators are playing at home, have more talent than the Seminoles and have a more cohesive coaching staff than the 'Noles. Sure, an upset is possible, but there really is not much to say about this game.

dude this isn't SG, i don't think anyone in here is the type to accuse a fan of looking past an opponent. that said i'd love a UF-VT bowl. we just better win so i don't have to hear it from all the VT grads in my office.

[IHateUGAlyDawgs]

The Orange Bowl went out the window with the LSU loss.

Otherwise we would've been there. They wanted us over Georgia.

Capital One Bowl v. Michigan is what I'm hearing now.

[TTBHG]

The Orange Bowl went out the window with the LSU loss.

Otherwise we would've been there. They wanted us over Georgia.

Capital One Bowl v. Michigan is what I'm hearing now.

I do not know if the Orange Bowl is out of the question. I think UF would be more attractive to the Orange Bowl than UGA would. UF is ranked high enough that it they CAN be taken. There is no rule that I am aware of that says UGA has to get the invite because they are ranked a few spots higher. As long as we qualify, which we do, then they can choose any team they want as long as no more then two come from each conference. I just hope whatever bowl we get is played in Florida, I do not want to travel for a game this year.

[IHateUGAlyDawgs]

UGA is in the BCS top 5...that's going to kill us. Along w/ LSU taking up a Sugar Bowl spot now...trust me - we're done w/ the Orange Bowl (barring something drastic)

[TTBHG]

Don't get me wrong, I do not think we are going to the Orange Bowl. I was simply stating we still could if the Orange Bowl committee wanted us. It would not violate any rules. I think we get the Capitol one or Outback. I hope it isn't the Cotton but it is not impossible that we could wind up in the OB. UF is a really attractive game for TV purposes especially if the committee thinks that TT will win the Heisman, as it will be awarded before the game is played.

[TheTodd]

I think it would take a UT win over LSU this weekend for us to even think about the Orange Bowl. Even then it would be a coup.