For the third consecutive year, the Southeastern Conference has been incredibly friendly to the visitors in league games. Home teams barely finished above. 500 in 2005, lost more times than they won in 2006 and are dead even at 17-17 this season.
That bizarre pattern bodes well for Florida's SEC East championship hopes because the Gators have to win at South Carolina this Saturday and would love to see visiting Arkansas knock off SEC East co-leader Tennessee and visiting Auburn upend Georgia, the other SEC East co-leader.
One problem. None of that road success applies to Florida. Even though South Carolina has lost three in a row to fall out of the SEC race, anyone expecting an easy game Saturday is not paying attention to detail.
The Gators have been h-h-h-horrible defensively away from The Swamp, so bad the numbers will make you stutter when you recite them. They gave up 24 points and 390 yards to Ole Miss in their first road trip. They yielded 28 points and 391 yards to LSU in Baton Rouge. They allowed 37 points and 512 yards to Kentucky in Lexington. They surrendered 42 points and 413 yards to
Georgia in Jacksonville.
Notice a disturbing trend? The defense has been increasingly bad with each game outside of Gainesville, going from a merely troubling performance against mediocre Ole Miss to repeated fourth-down failures against LSU to an aerial assault at Kentucky to a complete gouging by Georgia.
They stuffed Vanderbilt's offense in their return to Florida Field last Saturday, but they have been good all year at home. Troy's 336 yards in early September were the most UF has allowed in five games in The Swamp, with Western Kentucky managing 204 yards, Tennessee 298, Auburn 326 and Vanderbilt 255.
In other words, that feel-good, redemptive flogging of the Commodores probably does not mean much. The Gators already had proven they could play good defense at home.
The question is whether or not the kiddie corps secondary of Joe Haden, Wondy Pierre-Louis and Major Wright can take that confidence on the road, where they won't get any emotional support from the crowd. Will two-weeks old defensive tackle Mike Pouncey be as sure of himself at Williams-Brice Stadium as he was at Florida Field? Will linebackers Brandon Spikes and Dustin Doe stay in their gaps or will they start trying to do too much away from their comfort zone?
South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier fooled UF two years ago by sticking with the ground game against a pass-conscious, nickel defense in a 30-22 upset.
This time he should have his choice of land or air.
The Gators, who have held every home opponent to fewer than 100 rushing yards, gave up 247 on the ground to LSU and another 196 to Georgia. The Gamecocks' offensive line is not nearly as physical as LSU's and they don't have a running back as special as Knowshon Moreno, but Cory Boyd is good enough to do some damage.
The Gators also are running into a hot quarterback. The streaky Blake Mitchell has thrown for 654 yards while completing 60.4 percent of his passes in South Carolina's last two games. He will enjoy taking aim at a secondary that allowed 12.1 yards per attempt to Georgia's Matt Stafford and
415 yards to Kentucky's Andre Woodson.
Maybe South Carolina has gone in the tank after playing 10 consecutive Saturdays, as their absurd defensive performance against Arkansas indicated.
The Hogs ran for 541 yards (who knew a Spurrier D could give up more rushing yards than UF allowed to Nebraska in the 1995 national title game?) in a 48-36 score-fest, but teams almost deserve a pass for whatever happens to them against Arkansas. Houston Nutt's ground-bound offense is nothing like any other scheme in the SEC.
You only have to go back a year to find out how a lousy performance against Arkansas can distort reality. The Razorbacks ran for 279 yards in a convincing 27-10 upset of No. 2 Auburn, with Darren McFadden and Felix Jones both cracking the 100-yard barrier at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
The next week, Auburn beat Florida 27-17, shutting out the Gators in the second half.
With a healthy Percy Harvin and Tim Tebow, Florida is capable of beating any team, anywhere. But if the defense continues to hemorrhage away from Gainesville, the Gators can lose to just about anyone, too.
South Carolina lost 17-6 to the same Vanderbilt team UF hammered last Saturday. I still will be surprised if Meyer's third meeting with Spurrier does not go deep into the fourth quarter again before anyone knows who will win.